Sorry, got distracted for the last four hours and nine minutes.
Friedman Billings Ramsey
LATE LAST SUMMER, WE JOINED the recession camp, opining that the probability of a recession starting sometime during the next 12 months was 60%. While the level of economic uncertainty remains unusually high, with four more months of economic and credit-market data under our belts, the economic outlook appears to us to be somewhat less uncertain now than it was back in early September.
We are raising our assessment of the probability of a recession in 2008 to 70% and think the odds are about even that the Business Cycle Dating Committee at the National Bureau of ...