Monday, January 14, 2008

First Solar Math

Commentary at Motley Fool:
...Again, I'm not advising to short this stock now (except in CAPs, where you can ride it out indefinitely) because the stock is too hot. But how many stocks can you name that have ever traded at 125x forward earnings and then then traded significantly higher 5 years later? I did a screen to look for stocks over the last 5 years that have traded at more than a 100 p/e and more than 20x sales (FSLR trades at about 38x sales).

There were very few stocks that have met those criteria since 2002. Some examples: RHT, RMBS, YHOO, MOGN, and TZOO. The average returns of those stocks if you bought them when they met those criteria have not been pretty. FSLR may be different. If you think you know something no one else does about what the company's revenues and earnings will be in 2012, buy it.