Monday, August 13, 2007

Hurricane Watch

From Jeff Masters PhD.'s Wunderblog.
Warning: If you go to the comments section, the crowd seems to pray for hurricanes. I think they are either long energy traders or deeply disturbed.
Update. I just caught the redundancy.

"What the models say
Several major models--the ECMWF and GFDL--are no longer developing 90L into a tropical storm. The NOGAPS model never has, and continues not to. The GFS, UKMET, and new HWRF model all do develop the system, and bring it to a strong tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane by the time it reaches the Lesser Antilles Islands Thursday night or Friday. Some scenarios to consider:

1) A trough of low pressure is expected to move off the U.S. east Coast Friday, which may be able to deflect 90L northwards enough to pass north of the Lesser Antilles Islands. A high pressure ridge is then expected to build in, forcing 90L more westwards towards the U.S. East Coast. This is the scenario preferred by the Canadian model.

2) 90L will be far enough south and next weekend's trough will be weak enough that 90L will plow through the Caribbean, and not be deflected north of the Lesser Antilles Islands. This is the solution preferred by the GFS, UKMET, and HWRF models.

3) 90L will never develop, or will never become more than a weak tropical storm, due to unfavorable wind shear, dry air, or other factors.

Of the three scenarios, I believe #2 is most likely to occur--90L will develop into a tropical storm or hurricane that will hit the Lesser Antilles, and pass into the Caribbean.