Friday, August 24, 2007

$200 Billion in Sub-prime Losses?

That's a number J. Kyle Bass said we could reach, in this story by Bob Lenzner for Forbes:

It ain't over 'til its over. I'm talking about the subprime mortgage mess, its impact on the markets, on housing prices and the economy.

My source is one savvy hedge fund manager in Dallas, J. Kyle Bass, whose Hayman Capital Partners went massively short on bonds backed by subprime mortgages more than a year ago and made a fortune for its investors. Just being short mortgage-backed bonds ran $110 million into almost $500 million in less than a year.

And Bass tells me he is looking for even more profits to be gleaned from the expected marking down of these toxic pieces of paper....

...He sent me an Aug. 22 report from Goldman Sachs that screams "House Prices Look Even More Overvalued than We Thought."

Goldman's benchmarks to evaluate house prices "suggest cumulative nominal home price declines of 15% to 30% over the next few years." Moreover, this would raise the risk of an adverse spiral of deteriorating credit quality and lower access to credit. A reduction of homeownership and net demand for housing could weigh on U.S. economic activity for an extended period of time, Bass suggests.