Tuesday, August 14, 2007

Here Comes Your 19th Market Meltdown

I've been at the market a long time. On Sunday it occurred to me that it was the twenty-fifth anniversary of the start of the big bull market of the '80's. The DJIA closed Aug. 12, 1987 at (I think) 776.92 and ran to 2722 on August 25, 1987. I remember the top tick because Fidelity took out a full page ad in the Journal.
They were a lot rarer then.

Somewhere between this: (at the WSJ's MarketBeat blog, yesterday)

..."Abby Cohen, chief investment strategist at Goldman Sachs, falls reliably into the latter category. She points out the S&P 500’s current price-to-earnings multiple of 15.5, lower than the average 18.5 P/E in comparable periods, and puts a year-end fair value on the S&P 500 at 1600, going so far as to call that target conservative."

And this: (from a bitter young man),
"As you know, we are holding, cash, guns, gold, beer, cows, goats, open pollinated seeds"

lies reality.

When the UAL deal fell apart in 1989, the markets dropped 7% in one day. I knew a guy who made enough that one day to retire and do what he really wanted to do. Unfortunately for the flow of this commentary I can't remember what that was.

After closing at 14,000.41 on July 19th, the DJIA is down 6.94%.
Big whoop.

The ATM is closed for repairs. It will reopen and we'll all go thundering off to the new, new thing.
In the meantime I'm thinking to myself:

You're the kind of person

You meet at certain
dismal dull affairs.

Center of a crowd,
talking much too loud

Running up and down the stairs.
Well, it seems to me that you have seen too much in too few years.
And though you've tried
you just can't hide

Your eyes are edged with tears.

You better stop
Look around...