Monday, August 13, 2007

Get Old, Cut CO2 Emissions (or not)

Not one mention of methane however.

We have before us two papers with diametrically opposed positions. I learned of the first last winter by way of this headline: "Older people most to blame on climate" in the Yorkshire Post which led me to this:
"Greening The Greys: Climate Change and the Over 50s" a 23 page PDF.

In direct contradiction is:
Population Aging and Future Carbon Emissions in the United States

Changes in the age composition of U.S. households over the next several decades could affect energy use and carbon dioxide emissions. This article incorporates population age structure into an energy-economic growth model with multiple dynasties of heterogeneous households. The model is used to estimate and compare effects of population aging and technical change on baseline paths of U.S. energy use and emissions. Results show that population aging reduces long-term carbon dioxide emissions, by almost 40% in a low population scenario, and effects of aging on emissions can be as large, or larger than effects of technical change in some cases.

38 page PDF