Ahead Of The Spring Riot Season: "Taser Maker Axon Enterprise's Stock Soars on Strong Earnings, Outlook"

Although Axon specializes in less-than-lethal technology we will be keeping an eye on other members of the riot control/personal protection industry.

From Investopedia, February 26:

• Axon Enterprise posted fourth-quarter earnings that topped analysts' estimates.
• The Taser maker also offered a strong outlook on demand for its defense products.
• Axon shares soared following the results and have nearly doubled in value over the last year. 

Axon Enterprise (AXON) shares soared Wednesday on the company's better-than-expected earnings and strong outlook on growing demand for its Taser 10 weapon, portable cameras, and premium subscriptions.

The defense products manufacturer posted adjusted fourth-quarter earnings per share (EPS) of $2.08, above analysts' estimates compiled by Visible Alpha. Revenue jumped 33.6% year-over-year to $575.1 million, also more than anticipated.1

Taser revenue was up 37.1% to $221.2 million, while revenue from Axon's Cloud & Services segment jumped 40.6% to $230.3 million, and Sensors & Other revenue grew 17.5% to $123.6 million.

For the full year, Axon said it anticipates adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of $640 million to $670 million and sales of $2.55 billion to $2.65 billion. Analysts had been looking for adjusted EBITDA of $654 million and sales of $2.57 billion.

Shares of Axon Enterprise were up nearly 17% in Wednesday afternoon trading and have nearly doubled in value over the last year....

....MORE 

Previously:

November 2022: Elliot Management: "World ‘plunging towards societal collapse’ as era of cheap money ends"

In other news: "Meghan Markle Wears a Chic Trench Coat in a Rare Look at Her Off-Duty Style"

*****

I'm not sure why Mr. Singer is talking about hyperinflation, that term has a specific meaning, 50%, or higher, per month price increases, that is the result of monetizing government deficit spending as it happens, i.e. printing money, and the major economies are at least 10 years from that.

On the other hand there is the probability that Central Banks will accept 4% CPI, declare victory and move on to other stuff. Thirdly, a decade of 10% annual inflation is a real possibility if the Central Banks decide their over-leveraged compadres in the private sector are worthy of being bailed out.

For the latter two scenarios the top-of-mind public riot-control equity names are Taser International (TASR) and Lamperd Less Lethal Inc. (LLLI).

Should the hyperinflation scenario actually occur you would probably want the old-line armaments purveyors, Northrup-Grumman (NOC), Ratheon [now RTX Corp.] (RTN RTX) or BAE Systems (BA:lon) come to mind.

And trench coats? Burberry from $2490.00.

Profit From The Global Riot Control Industry
This is a repost from May 2016 but it's probably evergreen.

2021: Today's Hot Tip From Investment Hulk

RIOT-CONTROL KILLER ROBOT TECHNOLOGY IS A WINNING INVESTMENT THEME FOR THE NEXT 10-15 YEARS (AND BEYOND). https://t.co/O0kkDqAxh9

— INVESTMENT HULK (@INVESTMENTSHULK) November 19, 2021

Putin Is Planning A Return To The World Economy

From Semafor, February 24:

Analysis: Moscow’s Gulf dealmaker is trying to restore Russia’s economy 

If there was any doubt that Russia is preparing to re-enter the global economy, the Kremlin just erased it.

Kirill Dmitriev, the longtime CEO of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, has been named Special Envoy of the President of the Russian Federation for investment and economic cooperation with foreign countries — a role that underscores Moscow’s push to restore economic ties. The appointment also suggests that both Moscow and Washington view Russia’s reintegration, politically and economically, as inevitable. Just last week, Dmitriev met with Trump administration officials in Riyadh for their first round of talks on ending the war in Ukraine.

For Gulf leaders, Dmitriev is a familiar face. Before the war in Ukraine, it was common to see him at Zuma in Abu Dhabi or hosting Russian cultural events in Riyadh. He is also well known to the Trump administration. At a Future Investment Initiative event in Miami last week, Middle East envoy Steven Witkoff credited Dmitriev’s role in securing the release of American schoolteacher Marc Fogel from Russian detention, calling it a “show of good faith” from Vladimir Putin — one that helped kickstart US-Russia talks.

Dmitriev was tasked with reaching out to Washington, through Saudi intermediaries. When Jared Kushner — who was interviewing Witkoff in Miami — asked what made the current envoy confident enough to go to Moscow and pursue Fogel’s release without a prearranged deal, Witkoff said: The Saudis “assured us that this was real. That there was real validity to Kirill and what he was saying could happen.”....

....MUCH MORE

Insurance: "State Farm pegs LA wildfire loss at $7.6bn, with $212m retained after reinsurance"

I would say the purchase of reinsurance looks quite prudent in hindsight.

And makes State Farm's pitch for a 22% rate hike harder to justify.

From the re/insurance, cat bond, ILS mavens at Artemis, February 26: 

US primary insurance giant State Farm has said that its direct losses from the Los Angeles, California wildfires are currently estimated at $7.6 billion, but after significant reinsurance recoveries only $212 million is expected to be retained.

State Farm has about the largest exposure to the LA wildfires and its loss has always been anticipated to be in the billions.

In its latest update, the company explained that its State Farm General Insurance Company entity has already paid out $1.75 billion for around 9,500 insurance claims filed as a result of the January wildfires in California.

The insurers current estimate of direct losses from the Los Angeles fires is now roughly $7.6 billion, which includes both reported and not reported claims.

Retained losses for State Farm General Insurance Company are expected to be $212 million after reinsurance, and its share of FAIR Plan losses is expected to be $400 million.

The company explained that these estimates are expected to reduce State Farm General Insurance Company’s surplus by approximately $400 million.

The reinsurance runs via State Farm Mutual Automobile Insurance Company (SFM), which serves as the primary reinsurer for State Farm General Insurance Company, so exactly how much of the loss ends up in the private reinsurance market is impossible to say at this stage.

State Farm also said that a rate increase it had requested right after the wildfires is not to pay for the costs of the fires, that will be born by surplus and its reinsurance.

However, State Farm continues to say that the rate increase is needed to ensure maximum availability of homeowners insurance in California.

Recall that, State Farm’s loss from these fires could have been higher had it not begun to pull-back from some of the affected areas in recent years.

The insurer explained the challenges it faces, “SFG insures high concentrations of risk in California that could generate financial losses multiple times larger than the company’s current surplus. A smaller capital base will further constrain SFG’s ability to provide ongoing coverage....

....MUCH MORE

Recently:

February 12 -  California's High-Risk Property Insurance Plan Assesses Commercial Insurers $1 Billion To Keep From Going Broke

February 12 -  Insurance: State Farm Asks California For 22% Emergency Rate Hike, Doesn't Seem Very Good At This Property/Casualty Business

February 25 - California Wildfires: "State Farm vs California showdown: Here are the huge stakes"

First Solar Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript (FSLR)

The stock is trading up $13.38 (+9.07%) on the forward guidance (the just reported earnings missed analyst estimates by $1.04) to $$160.84.

Jumping into the middle of the prepared remarks for a look at the broader environment.

From Motley Fool Transcribing, February 25:

Prepared Remarks
Questions and Answers
Call Participants

....A word about the overall market conditions and our policy environment. Beginning with the macro environment, President Trump has defined an expansive economic mandate that could reshape the U.S. economy over the next four years, particularly in terms of electricity production and consumption, as administration's goals of accelerating economic growth, reducing inflation, establishing global energy dominance bringing American manufacturing jobs back and Champion innovation, including artificial intelligence, require abundant, stable power generation. Forecast showed that the U.S.

will need 128 gigawatts of new capacity by 2029 to meet high summer peak demand. And while President Trump is expected to preside over the first meaningful growth in electricity demand this century, it will not be without challenges, the most significant of which is the time it takes to expand power generation capacity and grid infrastructure. Consider the new natural gas capacity could take half a decade to come online and cost twice as much as it did five years ago, thanks to supply chain constraints, including the shortage of turbines, large-scale nuclear power plants will take more than a decade to permit, construct, and commission. While decommissioned nuclear plants are an option, reportedly, only three assets can be economically recommissioned by 2028.

And while hyped and anticipated to be quicker to deploy, small modular reactors are not expected to operate commercially at gigawatt scale before 2035. Quite simply, in order to avoid potential energy price-related inflation, maintained its economic and innovation competitiveness, and secure its energy independence, the country cannot wait that long. Given its attributes of low cost and speed to deployment relative to other sources of energy generation, solar should clearly be a significant part of the near-term solution mix. The administration and Congress must ensure that this unprecedented growth in power generation capacity is not deep in the country's dependence on China and that American manufacturers have access to a level playing field.

The threat from China is existential and cannot be addressed through market factors, economics, and innovation alone. Given this backdrop, we continue to advocate for decisive actions to address China's dominance of the global solar supply chain and weaponization of subsidy-fueled overcapacity to undermine American manufacturing, energy security, and enduring middle-class jobs. This includes establishing more in entities of concern or fee laws that exclude companies tied to the Chinese communist party from assessing U.S. tax other funded incentives.

Considering the large number of Chinese manufacturers that have set up low-value-added U.S. assembly shops importing high-value oversea components to secure billions in incentives, FEOC legislation not only prevents China from unfairly accessing U.S. taxpayer-funded incentives, but it also impactfully reduces the cost of programs like 45X, advanced manufacturing tax credit, while ensuring that value created by domestic manufacturing is retained in the U.S. and not remitted to China.....

****

And skipping further ahead to the guidance for 2025:

....So, it relates to our 2025 Section 45X credits, we are not forecasting the sale of these credits in 2025, and therefore, assuming no discount to the value of these credits for a sale to a third party. But as in previous years, we'll continue to evaluate options and valuations for earlier monetization. I'll now cover the full-year 2025 guidance ranges on Slide 11. Net sales guidance is between $5.3 billion and $5.8 billion.

Gross margin is expected to be between $2.45 billion and $2.75 billion or approximately 47%, which includes $1.65 billion to $1.7 billion of Section 45X tax credits and $50 million to $60 million of ramp on underutilization costs. SG&A expense is expected to total $180 million to $190 million versus $188 million in 2024, demonstrating our ability to leverage our largest fixed operating cost structure, while expanding production. R&D expense is expected to total $230 million to $250 million versus $191 million in 2024, R&D expenses increasing primarily due to commencing operations at our R&D innovation center and perovskite development line and the expectation of adding head count to our R&D team to further invest and advance research initiatives. SG&A and R&D expense combined is expected to total $410 million to $440 million and total operating expenses, which includes $60 million to $70 million of production start-up expense are expected to be between $470 million and $510 million.

Operating income is expected to be between $1.95 billion and $2.3 billion, implying an operating margin of approximately 38%, and is inclusive of $110 million to $130 million of combined ramp costs and plant start-up expense and $1.65 billion to $1.7 billion of Section 45X credits. Selling to nonoperating items. We expect interest income, interest expense, and other income to Net Zero. Full-year tax expense is forecast to be $100 million to $120 million.

This results in full-year 2025 earnings per diluted share guidance range of $17 to $20. Note from an earnings cadence perspective, we expect between 2.7 and 3 gigawatts of module sales in the first quarter at a gross margin similar to the full-year average, resulting in first-quarter earnings per diluted share of between $2.20 and $2.70. Capital expenditures in 2025 are expected to range from $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion. Approximately half of our capex is associated with capacity expansion, majority of which relates to our Louisiana plant with the remainder driven by R&D programs, technology replication, and maintenance....

....MUCH MORE

February 25 - "First Solar is Set to Post Q4 Earnings: What's in Store?" (FSLR)

February 25 - "First Solar Misses on Earnings, Beats On Revenues Sees Good Things For 2025 (FSLR)"

Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast, Updated February 25

The January numbers will be released on February 28, the February results next month

From the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland:

Inflation, month-over-month percent change

Month	CPI	Core CPI	PCE	Core PCE	Updated
February 2025	0.23	0.27	0.19	0.22	02/25
January 2025			0.38	0.37	02/25

....MORE (year over year and quarterly)

If interested see also February 9's "Prepare for a Springtime CPI Collapse"

"Uncover hidden mine shafts and more" With Your Own $100 Muon Detector

From IEEE Spectrum, February 24:

In the mid-1960s, the Nobel Prize–winning physicist Luis Alvarez had a wild idea. He proposed using muons, highly penetrating subatomic particles created when cosmic rays strike Earth’s atmosphere, to search for hidden chambers within one of the pyramids of Giza.

These muon particles are heavyweight cousins of electrons that travel close to the speed of light. They can penetrate through many meters of solid rock, including the limestone and granite blocks used to build the pyramids. But some of the muons will be absorbed by this dense material, meaning that they can be used to essentially “X-ray” a pyramid, revealing its inner structure. So in 1968, Alvarez and his colleagues began making muon measurements from a chamber located at the base of the Pyramid of Khafre.

They didn’t find a hidden chamber, but they did confirm the feasibility of what has come to be called muon tomography. Physicists have since used the technique to discover hidden access shafts above tunnels, study magma chambers within volcanos, and even probe the damaged reactors at Fukushima. And, in 2017, muon measurements finally revealed a hidden chamber in one of the pyramids of Giza—just not the pyramid that Alvarez had chosen to explore.

You too can perform similar experiments with equipment that you can build yourself for only US $100 or so.

While some well-documented designs are available for low-cost muon detectors (in particular, the Cosmic Watch project from MIT), I decided to pursue a simpler—and slightly cheaper—approach....

....MUCH MORE

The Great Wall Of Debt: "China Needs $3 Trillion Local Debt Solution, Top Economist Says"

That is such an enormous drag on the local economies. Think Chicago, cubed, or to the fourth. Eventually everything just grinds to a halt, stasis, entropy, death.

From Bloomberg, February 25:

• Policy adviser says debt relief measures to date aren’t enough
• Local governments’ actions dragging on economy, Li Daokui says

China needs to vastly step up its efforts to cleanse the balance sheets of the nation’s local governments, giving them the space needed to support consumer spending and strengthen the economy, one of the nation’s most prominent economists said.

The central government should take on at least 20 trillion yuan ($2.8 trillion) worth of local sovereign debt, David Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University and a regular adviser on policy to Beijing, said in an interview. The debt relief measures policymakers rolled out late last year aren’t strong enough, he said.

Burdened by debt loads accumulated during Covid and China’s previous property-and-infrastructure boom, many local authorities have taken actions including delaying payments to suppliers and withholding public workers’ paychecks — damaging the broader economy. Li estimates regional authorities owe a total of 10 trillion yuan in arrears to contractors and civil servants. That’s equivalent to 7% of China’s gross domestic product last year.

To solve the problem, Li proposed that the central government sell more bonds and use the proceeds to buy regional authorities’ debt. Provincial and municipal agencies could transfer assets to Beijing in exchange, he said.

A swap at a scale of 20 to 50 trillion yuan would be effective in relieving debt burdens around the country, allowing local authorities to better support consumers, according to Li. This would also be helpful in the face of US President Donald Trump’s measures to curb Chinese exports, he indicated.

“No matter whether it’s pressure from Trump’s trade protection or from China’s own economic problems, the solution lies in fixing weak consumption,” Li said. “The key is to reduce local governments’ contractionary behaviors.”

Encouraging domestic consumer spending may prove crucial to China this year. Export growth, which has surged since the pandemic, is under threat from Trump’s tariffs along with rising trade tensions with the European Union and other locations around the world. Weak domestic demand has led to persistent deflation, resulting in a downward spiral between residents’ income and corporate profits....

....MUCH MORE

First Solar Misses on Earnings, Beats On Revenues Sees Good Things For 2025 (FSLR)

From the company, February 25: 

First Solar, Inc. Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Financial Results and 2025 Guidance 

• Net sales of $4.2 billion for 2024 and $1.5 billion for the fourth quarter
• Net income per diluted share of $12.02 for 2024 and $3.65 for the fourth quarter
• 2024 year-end net cash balance of $1.2 billion
• 2024 net bookings of 4.4 GW with an average selling price of 30.5 cents per watt, excluding adjusters, India domestic volume, and terminations
• 2025 net sales guidance of $5.3 billion to $5.8 billion
• 2025 earnings per diluted share guidance of $17.00 to $20.00
• 2025 year-end net cash balance guidance of $0.7 billion to $1.2 billion

TEMPE, Ariz.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- First Solar, Inc. (Nasdaq: FSLR) (the “Company”) today announced financial results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2024.

Net sales for the fourth quarter were $1.5 billion, an increase of $0.6 billion from the prior quarter. The increase was primarily a result of increased module sales in the fourth quarter. Net sales for the full year 2024 were $4.2 billion compared to $3.3 billion in the prior year. This increase was primarily driven by a higher volume of modules sold to third parties.

The Company reported fourth quarter net income per diluted share of $3.65 and full year net income per diluted share of $12.02.

Cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash, restricted cash equivalents, and marketable securities, less debt at the end of the fourth quarter increased to $1.2 billion from $0.7 billion at the end of the prior quarter. The increase was primarily the result of the initial proceeds received from the sale of 2024 Section 45X tax credits and module segment operating cash flows, partially offset by capital expenditures associated with our Alabama and Louisiana facilities.

“In 2024, we continued building the foundations required for our long-term growth strategy,” said Mark Widmar, chief executive officer, First Solar. “Even as we maintained a highly selective approach to bookings, we expanded manufacturing capacity by commissioning our Alabama facility and progressed construction of our new Louisiana facility, established the infrastructure we anticipate will accelerate innovation with a new R&D center in Ohio, and produced and shipped a historic volume of modules.”

The complete 2025 guidance is as follows:....

....MUCH MORE

During the regular trading session the stock traded down $5.45 to settle at $$147.46.

In early after-hours trade the stock is up $4.54 to $152.00.

We'll have more after the 4:30 p.m. ET conference call, though it may have to wait until tomorrow.

Earlier today:  "First Solar is Set to Post Q4 Earnings: What's in Store?" (FSLR)

California Wildfires: "State Farm vs California showdown: Here are the huge stakes"

From the San Francisco Chronicle, February 23:

California’s home insurance market is running out of worst-case scenarios. But one threat still looms large: further pullback or even a complete exit by its biggest player by far, State Farm General.

It has been just under a year since State Farm sent state regulators a letter indicating the company was concerned about its financial stability. Its policyholder surplus, a key metric reflecting its ability to pay claims, dropped from $4 billion in 2016 to just over $1 billion last year.

An insurance company has different levers it can pull if it’s concerned about its financial state. It can stop taking new customers. It can raise its rates on current customers. It can also not renew existing customers. 

State Farm has pulled all of these levers to varying degrees already. In May 2023, the insurer announced it was issuing a blanket pause on writing new homeowners policies in California. In March 2024, when it first sent regulators its letter flagging financial worries, the company said it would not renew approximately 30,000 homeowners policies and completely withdraw from California’s apartment landlord market, leaving behind 42,000 more customers. That same month, State Farm began implementing an average 20% price hike for its existing customers.

In the wake of last month’s devastating Los Angeles wildfires, the company warned its future financial woes could trigger a “dire situation” for both State Farm customers and the California market as a whole. It could in theory pull its last lever of all — exiting the California market, sparking chaos for one million homeowners, in addition to its multitude of commercial policies, and the market as a whole.

State Farm has spelled out for state regulators exactly what it wants: expedited approval of a 22% price hike for consumers, even those who don’t live in high-risk areas. That, in turn, leaves regulators with a dilemma: capitulate to this demand and let consumers pay more, or potentially risk even more consumers losing their insurance....

....MUCH MORE

Previously:

June 2021 - "The Wildfire West: Where Housing Sprawl and Wildfire-Prone Areas Collide"

May 2023 - "State Farm Halts Home-Insurance Sales in California" 

June 2023 - Wildfire: "Living in the Danger Zone" 

July 2023 -  RISK: "State Farm is right. California can’t keep building housing in high-risk places"

September 2024 - "As wildfire risks intensify, California insurance rates keep rising"

January 2 - "Calif. will force insurers to cover fire-prone areas. But rates will rise."

February 12 - California's High-Risk Property Insurance Plan Assesses Commercial Insurers $1 Billion To Keep From Going Broke

February 12 - Insurance: State Farm Asks California For 22% Emergency Rate Hike, Doesn't Seem Very Good At This Property/Casualty Business

And many more.

It's not as if this stuff just crept up on the insurers and California's government.

"Elon Musk spells danger for Accenture, McKinsey and their rivals"

From The Economist, February 19:

Why the American government could turn against consultants 

It should be a management consultant’s dream. The organisation is immense. Bloat is a problem. And the new boss is eager to shake things up. President Donald Trump and his disrupter-in-chief, Elon Musk, have already begun hacking away at America’s federal bureaucracy. Mr Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has set itself the target of cutting government spending by a colossal $2trn.

For an industry that helps organisations remake themselves, that seems like an opportunity like no other. Yet consulting firms, which have come to rely on the federal government for a growing share of fees, are looking on nervously. None of them appear to have a seat at Mr Musk’s table. They could instead be on the menu.

Consultants have a long history of cashing in on government projects. McKinsey, the world’s most prestigious strategy adviser, at least by its own estimation, helped Dwight Eisenhower establish the post of White House chief of staff in 1953 and designed NASA’s first organisational structure in 1958. By 1977 Jimmy Carter was grumbling that the federal bureaucracy was employing consulting firms “excessively, unnecessarily and improperly”. That year Booz Allen Hamilton, a consultancy, was paid $320,000 ($1.7m at today’s prices) by the Department of Agriculture to figure out how many chickens its inspectors should examine per minute.

Such a contract would look like chump change these days. The same firm received $9bn from the federal bureaucracy in the most recent fiscal year, according to government data. Add in the other top government consultancies—Accenture, BCG, Deloitte, EY, Guidehouse (formerly part of PwC), KPMG and McKinsey—and the figure exceeds $18bn, up from just $5bn a decade before (see charts).

The importance of America’s government for consulting revenue varies across these firms. Booz Allen Hamilton, which parted ways with its private-sector consulting business in 2008, is nearly entirely reliant on the public sector. McKinsey, whose work for the federal goverment slowed after its association with opioid manufacturers tarnished its reputation, makes less than 1% of its global revenue from federal contracts. Across the firms we examined, though, the federal government accounted for about 8% of total revenue last year. There is no bigger single client.

Some contracts are enormous. EY has made nearly $70m since 2020 supporting a reform plan at the Department of Housing and Urban Development. BCG has been allocated $380m since 2022 by the Defence Health Agency, which provides medical care to the armed forces, as part of an initiative called “Workforce 3.0”. Accenture has received $700m from the Department of Education since 2019 to build and manage a website, mobile app and virtual assistant for student aid....

....MUCH MORE

"First Solar is Set to Post Q4 Earnings: What's in Store?" (FSLR)

The last time we posted on FSLR some damn political pollster said Kamala Harris was going to take Iowa in the Presidential election, spurring false hope among solar fans and necessitating a margin call decision among those readers who had taken our October 30 comment to heart. From November 6's "UPDATED—Iowa Pollster Ann Selzer Destroyed The Dreams (and more importantly the finances) Of Renewable Energy Investors (FSLR)"

First Solar Update (FSLR)

Original post:

On October 30 we posted "First Solar Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript (FSLR)" with the intro line "It sounds like dead money for at least a quarter." Straight analysis in ten words informed by a lifetime at the market.

So far so good.

On November 2 the Des Moines Register published "Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day. Here's how" about which the BBC gushed:

Pollster explains why Harris leads in Iowa poll 

A new poll of voters in Iowa suggests that Kamala Harris is leading with 47% over Donald Trump's 44%.

The survey was released by the highly regarded pollster Ann Selzer, who regularly carries out surveys for the Des Moines Register newspaper....

MarketWatch did not refer to the "highly regarded pollster", instead going with "Trump election odds tumble on betting markets after Iowa poll shows Harris lead".

The stock which had traded as low as $183.68 on October 30 (closing at $197.50), hit $221.20 on November 4.

 

This morning's MarketWatch story is headlined "Renewable-energy stocks tank after Trump wins White House"

The stock is trading at $183.20 down $32.69 (-15.14%).

Although nerve-wracking as that was, all's well that ends well, the stock was indeed dead money, $148.70 coming into today's earnings report:

TradingView

 

And the ructions of early November are slowly fading into those sepia-toned memories that surround any trade past settlement date.

 

And the future? First up, the earnings mavens at Zacks via Yahoo Finance, February 21:

First Solar, Inc. FSLR is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2024 results on Feb. 25, after market close.

Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.

First Solar delivered a negative earnings surprise of 6.13% in the last reported quarter. However, the company has a four-quarter average earnings surprise of 8.32%.

Let’s discuss the factors that are likely to reflect in the upcoming quarterly results.
Factors to Note Ahead of FSLR’s Results

First Solar has been expanding its production capacity to meet growing solar demand. The company opened a new solar module factory in Alabama in the third quarter, which is expected to have boosted its module shipments and, thereby revenues in the fourth quarter.

However, Chinese manufacturers have been selling low-cost solar panels in India, which has created pricing pressure in the Indian market. This is likely to have reduced First Solar’s sales in India to some extent and, thereby impacted its top line.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FSLR’s fourth-quarter sales is pinned at $1.47 billion, which indicates year-over-year growth of 26.9%....

....MUCH MORE

And from Investing.com February 11:

 

Street Calls of the Week 

....First Solar

What happened? On Tuesday, Mizuho upgraded First Solar Inc (NASDAQ:FSLR) to Outperform with a $259 price target.

*TLDR: First Solar upgraded for tech edge, resilience. Analysts see tariffs, TOPCon driving outperformance.

What’s the full story? Mizuho’s upgrade is driven by a brighter post-2026 sales outlook. First Solar’s edge lies in its dominance of TOPCon technology, which leaves U.S. competitors stuck with pricier, less efficient PERC cells. Roth’s channel checks suggest this tech advantage solidifies First Solar’s position as the leader in a crowded field.

The stock’s YTD underperformance, the analysts note, likely reflects fears that the 45X manufacturing tax credit could vanish under a Republican administration. But here’s the kicker: even in Mizuho’s base case—where 45X gets a one-year off-ramp before expiring in 2027—First Solar is cushioned by tariffs, giving it stronger negotiating power. This resilience prompts Mizuho to raise 2027-2032 ASP estimates and bump its DCF-based price target by 19% to $259....

....MUCH MORE 

And the pollster? She retired, that was her last poll and I think someone paid her for that last poll.

Sexpionage, Polar Bear Fur And Fugitive Salmon

Three from the Barents Observer. First up, February 17:

Fugitive salmon wanted
After thousands of salmon escaped from a fish farm in northern Norway, a bounty is being offered for their capture, and environmentalists file a police report. 

An estimated 27,000 salmon escaped from a fish farm on the night of 9 February in Dyrøy municipality, northern Norway, NRK reports. The escape happened after one of the cages was damaged in a strong storm at sea. 

The fish company Mowi, which owns the facility, is now offering a bounty of 500 Norwegian kroner (€43) for each salmon caught....

...MUCH MORE 

Quite a few of our previous posts on the subject were re-referenced in January 2024's:

"Salmon Escaping Farms Are Wreaking Havoc on Wild Fish"
You idiots!

And February 12:

How polar bear fur could unlock ice-free innovation across industry
Preventing ice buildup in extreme temperatures has long vexed industries from aviation to energy, but a new study suggests the answer may have been close to home all along — in polar bear fur.

In a study published in Science Advances, an international team of researchers found that the natural oils in polar bear fur prevent ice from sticking its hairs, even in the harshest Arctic conditions, a discovery that could have implications for industries struggling with ice buildup, especially in the face of climate change.

“We found that specific lipids in the sebum, such as cholesterol and diacylglycerols, exhibit very low adsorption energies on ice,” Marco Sacchi, an associate professor at Surrey’s School of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, and study co-author, said in a statement. 

“This weak interaction is what prevents ice from adhering to the fur.” 

Squalene who? The lipid polar bears are lucky to be without....

....MUCH MORE

And finally, January 31:

"It was like sexpionage"
Russian journalists have exposed a woman who allegedly faked being a lawyer and lied about her human rights work to gain access to sensitive information. The "fake biography" began in Murmansk. 

Creating identity 

33-year-old Maria Chashilova (Мария Чащилова) is a well-known figure among Russian journalists, human rights activists and lawyers. Her Facebook page is full of photos with them, and posts about her trips around Europe, opposition-related events, and activism. 

"For many years she worked in various human rights organisations, where, according to her, she was involved in rescuing gays from Chechnya, helping victims of political repression, investigating cases of sexual violence in Ukraine and leading other dangerous cases," the news website “Important Stories” (“Vazhnyy Istorii”) points out. But as the journalists highlight, Chashilova faked most of it to get access to information about people being prosecuted by the Russian authorities....

....MUCH MORE

The closest thing to sexpionage that we've posted recently was February 13's "How Not To Get Seduced By Foreign Spies: China’s Spy Agency":

....Recently, it warned people:

– not to get seduced by “tall, beautiful people”

A Timeline of Suspected Underwater Sabotage Incidents in the Baltic Sea

From Reuters via gCaptain, February 21:

The Baltic Sea region is on high alert after a string of power cable, telecom link and gas pipeline outages since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, and the NATO military alliance has boosted its presence with frigates, aircraft and naval drones.

Several investigations are under way but no suspects have been brought to trial.

FEBRUARY 2025: FINLAND-GERMANY TELECOM CABLE

Swedish and Finnish police said on February 21 they were investigating a suspected case of sabotage of an undersea telecoms cable in the Baltic Sea, while Sweden’s coast guard deployed a vessel to the location where the damage occurred.

No suspects have so far been identified, investigators said.

Finnish operator Cinia said it had “some time” earlier detected problems on its C-Lion1 link connecting Finland and Germany and that it had eventually received confirmation that the cable was damaged even as data traffic continued to flow.

The incident marked the third time in just a few months that the C-Lion1 cable was damaged, after it was completely severed in November and December of 2024.

The European Commission said it will spend almost a billion euros to boost surveillance of cables and establish a fleet of emergency repair vessels.

JANUARY 2025: SWEDEN-LATVIA TELECOM CABLE

An undersea fiber optic cable connecting the west coast of Latvia and the Swedish island of Gotland malfunctioned on January 26, triggering an investigation by NATO and local police.

Sweden later seized and boarded the Maltese-flagged bulk vessel Vezhen on suspicion that it had caused the damage in an act of gross sabotage.

Bulgarian shipping company Navigation Maritime Bulgare said that the Vezhen’s anchor had dropped to the seabed in high winds and may have struck the cable, but denied any sabotage.

A Swedish prosecutor on February 3 concluded that the breach happened by accident and released the vessel.

DECEMBER 2024: POWER AND INTERNET CABLES

The Estlink 2 undersea power cable connecting Finland and Estonia was damaged on December 25 along with four telecoms lines.

Finland seized the Cook Islands-registered Eagle S tanker on suspicion it caused the damage by dragging its anchor, adding that the ship was part of a “shadow fleet” circumventing sanctions on Russian oil.

The Kremlin said the ship’s seizure was of little concern to it, and Russia has previously denied involvement in such incidents.

Finnish police said on December 29 they had found tracks on the seabed where they suspect the Eagle S of damaging the cables, and investigators later recovered a lost anchor they said was believed to belong to the ship.

A Finnish court has rejected a request by the ship’s owner, United Arab Emirates-based Caravella LLC FZ, seeking the release of the ship.

NOVEMBER 2024: BALTIC TELECOM CABLES....

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"Indonesia launches sovereign wealth fund to manage assets worth US$900 billion; initial budget to kickstart 20 ‘strategic projects’"

Definitely interesting for those doing, or wishing to do, business in Indonesia.

From Channel News Asia, February 24: 

At the launch of the Danantara fund on Feb 24, Indonesian officials also sought to address some concerns on transparency and financial audit raised by observers, including some interviewed by CNA earlier.

JAKARTA: A new Indonesian sovereign wealth fund aims to manage the assets of all state-owned enterprises in the country worth more than US$900 billion, with President Prabowo Subianto saying that the fund will invest in 20 or more high-impact national projects this year.

At the launch of the Daya Anagata Nusantara - or Danantara - fund on Monday (Feb 24), Indonesian officials also sought to address some concerns on transparency and financial audit raised by observers, including some interviewed by CNA last week.

Southeast Asia’s biggest economy saw a wave of student protests in major Indonesian cities last week as a result of the government’s budget cuts to fund Prabowo’s flagship programme - the free nutritious meal initiative for students - and Danantara.

The government’s recent state budget cuts enabled it to save about US$44 billion, about US$20 billion of which will be used for Danantara.

Speaking at the launch on Monday, Prabowo said that Danantara's first wave of investments worth US$20 billion would be used for “strategic projects” involving nickel, bauxite, copper, food production, renewable energy, artificial intelligence, oil refineries and petrochemical plants.

“These are the sectors that will determine our future, our resilience and our nation's independence,” said Prabowo. 

When assuming office in late October, Prabowo had set a target annual economic growth of 8 per cent. It currently is at about 5 per cent.

Prabowo on Monday said Indonesia is ready to collaborate with everyone, including foreign partners, to make Danantara a success story and create new jobs. 

“Indonesia sends a clear message to all friends and partners worldwide (that) Indonesia is open for collaboration, open for business, open for investment, and open to shared prosperity,” he said. 

“Danantara Indonesia will allow us to expand our international cooperation, and I hope that all global partners will recognise Indonesia’s potential not just as an emerging economy but also as a pillar of regional stability and shared progress.”

The president added that Indonesia is determined to become a developed country, and the establishment of Danantara is another step towards that aim.

“We have already proven our commitment to managing Indonesia’s wealth and assets with very careful financial discipline and responsible governance in our first 100 days.”

QUESTIONS ABOUT TRANSPARENCY
Danantara is headed by Investment and Downstreaming Minister Rosan Roeslani, who was also the head of Prabowo’s presidential campaign team during last year’s election. 

State-owned Enterprises Minister Erick Thohir, who also campaigned for Prabowo last year, is the chairman of the supervisory board of the fund.

Prior to Danantara’s official launch, some experts had raised concerns about issues of transparency as it was unclear how the new sovereign wealth fund would be audited. 

Analysts told CNA that the country’s audit board (BPK) and financial and development supervisory agency (BPKP) could only audit Danantara with Parliament's approval, which is dominated by Prabowo’s coalition - the Advance Indonesia Coalition. 

This came after Parliament amended a law regarding state-owned enterprises on Feb 4. 

“Previously, the BPK could audit financial reports of the state-owned enterprises through various methods, but now it can only be audited through examinations with a specific purpose to detect whether or not there is state loss,” said Yassar Aulia, a researcher with non-governmental organisation Indonesia Corruption Watch (ICW)....

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Also at CNA, 25Feb2025: 

Indonesia arrests top executive of state-owned oil and gas firm, 6 others in US$12 billion corruption scanda

"Nvidia's H20 chip orders jump as Chinese firms adopt DeepSeek's AI models, sources say" (NVDA)

A Reuters exclusive from a few hours ago, Feb 24: 

• Alibaba, ByteDance, Tencent have boosted H20 purchases, sources say
• Smaller firms now buying servers with AI computing systems, source says
• Trump administration considering new H20 export controls, sources have said

SINGAPORE/BEIJING, Feb 25 (Reuters) - Chinese companies are ramping up orders for Nvidia's (NVDA.O), H20 artificial intelligence chip due to booming demand for DeepSeek's low-cost AI models, six people familiar with the matter said.

The surge in orders, which is being reported for the first time by Reuters, underlines Nvidia's dominance of the market and could help alleviate concerns that DeepSeek might cause a slide in AI chip demand.

Tencent (0700.HK), Alibaba (9988.HK), and ByteDance have "significantly increased" orders of the H20 - a chip specific to China due to U.S. export controls - since the Chinese AI startup burst into the global public consciousness last month, two of the people said.

In addition to their internal needs for advanced AI chips, the three tech giants provide cloud computing services through which other firms can access and use AI tools.

Smaller companies in sectors like healthcare and education are also purchasing AI servers equipped with DeepSeek models and Nvidia H20 chips, said a source at one of China's largest server makers. Previously only deep-pocketed financial and telecoms firms bought servers with AI computing systems, the source added.

U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is looking at imposing restrictions on the sale of the H20 chip to China, Reuters has reported. While the threat of further controls could be a factor in the jump in orders, the sources cited DeepSeek as the reason.

The sources did not provide details on the size of the orders. They were not authorised to speak to media and declined to be identified.

Nvidia did not respond to queries on how much demand for the H20 it was seeing from China but said its products won "on merit in a competitive field". The company is set to report quarterly earnings on Wednesday.
Tencent, ByteDance and Alibaba did not respond to requests for comment.

DeepSeek's large language models rival Western systems in performance at a fraction of the cost as they focus on "inference" or producing conclusions. That optimises computational efficiency rather than relying solely on raw processing power....

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Robots—Morgan Stanley On "The Humanoid 100: Mapping the Humanoid Robot Value Chain"

From MS, February 6:

The physical embodiment of AI touches a $60tn TAM, global GDP, and the meaning of work. Morgan Stanley presents the "Humanoid 100" — a global mapping of equities across a range of sectors and regions that may have an important role in bringing robots from the lab to your living room.

As GenAI continues to migrate from the digital world (bits/bytes) to the physical world (atoms/photons) investors are beginning to grasp the enormity of the potential disruption while struggling with "paths to expression" on the theme. In our original Humanoid BluePaper, we introduced the Humanoid 66 — a list of both enablers and beneficiaries that we believed were most exposed at the time. Since then, commercial developments evolved at a rapid pace, especially in China, with many new players announcing their involvement or intentions to become involved.

Investor interest seemed to accelerate meaningfully following NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang's 2025 CES presentation where he devoted roughly 40 minutes to the topic of physical AI and robotics. We are now fielding questions daily from a broad scope of global investors on how to play the "Embodied AI" theme across a number of angles.

Morgan Stanley has worked across dozens of sector teams to help our clients "map" differing stock expressions that are exposed to one of the most rapidly developing verticals of Embodied AI. We do not pretend to present the "Humanoid 100" as an exhaustive list but rather a starting point in a conversation that will last many years and is sure to follow some exciting and unpredictable chapters along the way. We invite our clients to challenge our list and offer their own ideas of what should or should not be included as they become ever smarter on the humanoid theme and its adjacencies....

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Trans, Vegan, Tech Savants Now Linked To Six Murders

From the Los Angeles Times, February 23:

VALLEJO, Calif. — As he prepared to give up the beloved pre-WWII-era ship he lived on in Half Moon Bay and move into a trailer on a lot he owned in this scrappy city on San Pablo Bay, Curt Lind made a fateful decision.

Lind, then in his late 70s, invited an eccentric group of folks living on a neighboring vintage tugboat to come along and become his tenants.

The neighbors — a group of computer savants and vegan activists committed to the study of human cognition, most of them trans women — moved box trucks on his land. It seemed like a win-win for the free-spirited Lind: They needed a place to stay, and he had a dream of making a little money by transforming his ramshackle lot into cheap housing for artists, woodworkers and other “makers” who were being squeezed by Bay Area prices.

“We talked a lot, and I thought we were good friends,” Lind said in a 2024 interview with The Times. “They were going to stay at my yard for four months.”

That’s not what happened. The pandemic hit. The tenants, according to Lind, stopped paying rent. And in 2022, when Lind, then 80, tried to evict them, some of those same tenants staged a brutal attack, slashing his body and stabbing out an eye, according to a criminal complaint filed by Solano County prosecutors. With a samurai sword still lodged in his body, Lind whipped out a gun and shot back, wounding one tenant and killing another. 

And then, the story really took a turn.

Because as horror-movie Gothic as a samurai sword attack on an octogenarian in a desolate corner of the San Francisco Bay might sound, it was only the first in a series of alleged violent crimes that law enforcement authorities have linked to members of the strange group Lind had welcomed into his motley community.

Over the past few years, several members of the group have been investigated, criminally charged or deemed persons of interest in incidents that resulted in six deaths across the U.S. The parents of one of the vegan associates, Michelle Zajko, were slain in the dark of night in their stately home in suburban Pennsylvania in late December 2022. Zajko, who authorities allege had a pistol similar to the one used in the crime, has been named a person of interest in their deaths. She has not been charged.

Last month, a Border Patrol agent was shot to death on a snowy Vermont highway during a shootout with two other associates of the group, Felix “Ophelia” Bauckholt, a German national, and computer science student Teresa Youngblut, 21. Bauckholt was also killed in the shootout, and Youngblut arrested.

And then there was Lind: He had survived the samurai attack and loss of an eye, and was preparing to testify against the tenants charged in his assault. But three days before the Vermont shootout, Lind was knifed to death in broad daylight outside his Vallejo lot. Another person with links to the group, Maximilian Snyder, a graduate of an elite Seattle prep school, was charged with Lind’s murder and trying to silence a witness. Snyder has not yet entered a plea.

Authorities in jurisdictions across the country have said little about the group or what evidence they have gathered in the far-flung cases. But court records, blog posts and interviews with family members and acquaintances paint a picture of a group whose members splintered from the Bay Area’s rationalist community — an intellectual movement exploring the underpinnings of human reasoning — and allegedly turned violent.

In the Bay Area’s rationalist community, they are known as the Zizians, a reference to Jack “Ziz” LaSota, a trans woman whose prolific blogging attracted a following. Many of her adherents attended fancy schools, are gifted with computers and worry about the dangers of artificial intelligence. They were often seen dressed all in black, or sometimes, wearing almost nothing at all. 

By many accounts, the origins of the group go back almost a decade, to the time when LaSota, a computer science graduate from Alaska, landed in the Bay Area.

LaSota, who is now 34 and uses feminine pronouns, would at one point be declared lost at sea, then turn up very much alive near the scene of violent crimes on both coasts. She has not been charged in any of the killings.

But this was well in the future. In 2016, she was, as she wrote in her blog, hoping to “contribute to saving the world.” It was rough going. She was fired from a job at a gaming startup and struggled to afford Bay Area housing....

....MUCH MORE

As always, keep an eye out for the bloggers.

OTOH, I'm not sure where this story leaves 'Cherchez la Femme'.

Capital Markets: "Greenback Trims Initial Losses: Reversal in the Making?"

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

Overview: With Japanese markets closed for a national holiday, the dollar was offered in early turnover today, and its recent losses were initially extended against several currency pairs. However, it recovered and early losses were pared or reversed. Among the G10 currencies, the dollar is higher against the Swiss franc and Japanese yen. The German election results were very much in line with the polls and a CDU/CSU-SPD coalition seems likely, and maybe the Greens too. Emerging market currencies are mostly firmer against the US dollar.

After the pre-weekend tumble in the US equities, Asia Pacific markets mostly fell today. Of the large bourses, Australia was an exception with its small gain. Europe's Stoxx 600 is up about 0.25%. US index futures are pointing to a higher open. Benchmark 10-year yields are little changed, putting the US 10-year Treasury yield near 4.43%. Gold is firm near $2940, a little below last week's record. April WTI opened below $70 and has recovered to about $70.65 in European turnover.

USD: The Dollar Index made a new low since early December in Asia Pacific trading today near 106.10 before recovering fully by late European morning turnover. A close above last Friday's high 106.75 would lift the technical tone....

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"Microsoft cancels leases for AI data centres, analyst says"

From Bloomberg via Malaysia's The Star, February 24:

Microsoft Corp. has begun cancelling leases for a substantial amount of data centre capacity in the US, a move that may reflect concerns about whether it’s building more AI computing than it will need over the long term, TD Cowen said in a report.

OpenAI’s biggest backer has voided leases totalling "a couple of hundred megawatts” of capacity, the US brokerage wrote Friday, citing channel checks or inquiries with supply chain providers. Microsoft has also stopped converting so-called statement of qualifications, which are agreements that usually lead to formal leases, TD Cowen said. That was a tactic rivals such as Meta Platforms Inc. employed previously, when it decided to cut back on capital spending, the brokerage wrote.

A pullback by Microsoft on spending and data centre construction raises questions about whether the company - one of the frontrunners among Big Tech in AI - is growing cautious about the outlook for demand. The company has said it expects to spend US$80bil (RM351bil) this fiscal year on AI data centres, and, on a late January earnings call, Chief Executive Officer Satya Nadella said Microsoft has to sustain spending to meet "exponentially more demand.”

Microsoft in a statement on Monday reiterated its spending target for the fiscal year ending June, but declined to comment on TD Cowen’s note.

"While we may strategically pace or adjust our infrastructure in some areas, we will continue to grow strongly in all regions,” a company spokesperson said in the statement. "Our plans to spend over US$80bil (RM351bil) on infrastructure this FY remains on track as we continue to grow at a record pace to meet customer demand.”

Critics have consistently pointed out a dearth of practical, real-world applications for AI, even as Microsoft, Meta and Amazon.com Inc. have pledged to spend billions on the data centres needed to train, develop and host AI services.

Wall Street stepped up its questions about the massive outlays after the Chinese upstart DeepSeek released a new open-source AI model that it claims rivals the abilities of US technology at a fraction of the cost....

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Singapore's Olam Sells Remaining Stake in Agri Products Business to Saudi Arabia’s Salic

Ah, virtual water.*

From the Wall Street Journal, February 23:

Olam will sell its entire 64.57% stake in Olam Agri in two tranches 

Singapore-based Olam Group has agreed to sell its remaining stake in its agricultural products business to state-owned Saudi Agricultural and Livestock Investment Company, bringing the business’s equity value to US$4.0 billion.

Olam will sell its entire 64.57% stake in Olam Agri in two tranches, Olam said on Monday. The first tranche, comprising 44.58% of Olam Agri, will be sold to Salic for US$1.78 billion, while the remaining 19.99% will be sold after three years.

Olam Agri supplies grains and oilseeds, animal feed and protein, rice, edible oils, specialty grains and seeds, cotton, wood products, rubber, and commodity financial services. It has operations in more than 30 countries and its revenue topped US$23 billion in 2023.

The transaction implies an equity valuation for Olam Agri of US$4.00 billion, representing a 14% premium to the US$3.50 billion valuation when Salic first acquired a 35.43% stake in 2022.

Olam is expected to raise gross cash proceeds of US$2.58 billion from the deal....

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*We've looked at virtual water a few times:

January 2013  

"PNAS Study: Population Growth Will be Constrained by the Limits of Trading Virtual Water (Food)" 

One of the few Limits to Growth that actually is a limit rather than some sort of scarcity meme.

However even this should be beatable if some smart people can do the deep dive into the wonder and magic (okay, chemistry and physics) that is H2O.
We'll be hearing about virtual water with increasing frequency, right now there are only 298,000 hits in a Google search....[now up to 459,00]

February 2014 
California Drought: Why Farmers Are 'Exporting Water' to China

January 2016

Saudi Arabia buying up farmland in Southwestern U.S.

March 2016
Shipping U.S. Water To Saudi Arabia
As we've noted elsewhere this is an example of what the hydrology pros call 'virtual water'. 

July 2019 

"Water is the hidden imbalance in U.S./China trade..."
Water is interesting stuff.
We'll have a few posts on it over the next week or so, starting off with something easy: virtual water....

February 2022
Embedded Water