Monday, December 8, 2025

Dec. 9 - "GE Vernova Investor Day Is Coming. What It Means for the Stock" (GEV)

I'm guessing the company won't be releasing any information that even comes close to sounding negative.

From Barron's, December 3:

GE Vernova has been a surprise AI winner, providing equipment that will power data centers now and in the future. Investors will get a look at how bright that future looks when management meets with investors next week.

Expectations are running high. Those expectations might have driven some profit-taking early in the day, before the big event, slated for Dec. 9.

Shares of the power-generation and grid-technology company traded as low as $575.38 before rallying to close at $601.97, up 0.1%. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3% and 0.9%, respectively.

The lows of the day at left GE Vernova shares down over the past month, but still up about 75% for the year. GE Vernova split off from GE Aerospace in early 2024, with shares starting out at roughly $140 apiece.

Things simply got better faster than anyone imagined. Wall Street currently projects 2028 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, or Ebitda, of $9.4 billion, according to FactSet. At the time of the spinoff, that estimate was closer to $4.6 billion.

There is only one problem with the 2028 projections. They are far ahead of company guidance. At GE Vernova’s prior analyst event in December 2024, the company outlined plans to generate roughly $6.3 billion in 2028 Ebitda. Demand for power and power equipment has continued to improve, but the gap represents a risk for the stock heading into the Dec. 9 investor meeting.

Investors are expecting a guidance bump. JPMorgan analyst Mark Strouse surveyed clients and found them “overwhelmingly bullish on [GE Vernova] stock over the next 12 months.”

He isn’t worried, though. The update to 2028 targets will be important, but it’s increasingly “old news…GE Vernova is set up to see many years of growth and margin expansion beyond 2028,” wrote Strouse in a Wednesday report. “And that incremental commentary on the 2030s could have the potential to be a more important topic.”...

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The stock is down today, off  $14.10 (2.23%) at $617.22.