Monday, December 8, 2025

Capital Markets: "Dollar Consolidates Ahead of Central Bank Meetings"

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

Overview: The US dollar is mostly consolidating in quiet turnover against the G10 currencies to start the new week, which is widely expected to see the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the third time. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets tomorrow and there is speculation that it may signal its next move is a hike. The Bank of Canada is on hold. The Swiss National Bank is reluctant to take its deposit rate, which is now at zero, back into negative territory. Emerging market currencies are mixed. Both the Mexican peso and Chinese yuan, which made new highs for the year last week, are consolidating at slightly lower levels. Of note, the Thai baht is the strongest among emerging market currencies despite the renewed hostilities with Cambodia. Meanwhile, Chinese-Japanese tensions remain high.

Global equities are mostly higher. In the Asia Pacific area, Hong Kong and mainland shares that trade there, India, and Australia are notable exceptions. Taiwan and South Korea led the mixed regional performance with more than 1% gains. Europe's Stoxx 600 is slightly firmer near midday, as are US index futures. Bonds, however, are under pressure. Japan and Australia's 10-year yields are around two basis point higher, while New Zealand's benchmark jumped eight basis points. European yields are 3-4 bp higher. The US 10-year Treasury yield is more than a basis point higher to near 4.15%, which is a new high since November 20. It has not been above 4.20% since early September. Gold is little changed, hovering near $4200. January WTI settled last week slightly north of $60 but is back below there now and is threatening to take out last Friday's low near $59.40....

....MUCH MORE