Wednesday, August 20, 2025

Capital Markets: "Kiwi Pounded on Dovish Guidance by RBNZ and UK Gilts Rise despite Higher than Expected CPI"

"Dad, why do people trade the New Zealand currency?"
"I don't know son, I just don't know."

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

Overview: Leaving aside the New Zealand dollar, which has been tagged for more than 1% after the dovish forward guidance following the central bank's well-telegraphed rate cut, and the Australian dollar, which has been dragged lower after yesterday's poor price action, the G10 currencies are little changed. The greenback is firmer against most emerging market currencies. Outside of New Zealand, the macro data has been limited to a larger than expected Japanese trade deficit, as exports to the US, EU, and China fell, and firmer than expected UK July inflation. The highlight from the US today are the FOMC minutes, which seem less relevant after the August 1 jobs report and official comments. 

While Japanese, Taiwan, and South Korea stocks sold off, most of the other markets in the Asia Pacific region rose with China's CSI 300 rising more than 1% and the Shanghai Composite reaching a new 10-year high. Europe's Stoxx 600 is posting a minor gain but sufficient to extend its advance for the third consecutive session and the sixth in past seven. US index futures are nursing small losses after yesterday's sell-off. European benchmark 10-year yields are mostly 1-2 bp lower, but the UK 10-year Gilt yield is off four basis points, despite the higher CPI reading. The 10-year Treasury yield is off almost a single basis point to slip back below 4.30%. Gold has steadied after losing 0.5% yesterday. It dipped below $3312, its lowest level since August 1, but recovered to session highs, a little above $3327 in Europe. October WTI continues to trade in Monday's range ($61.45-$63.00).  

USD: The Dollar Index has not gone anywhere really in the past five sessions....

....MUCH MORE