Tuesday, July 1, 2025

"Dollar Drop Gains Momentum and US Rates Extend Decline"

DXY futures look poised to print with a 95 handle this week, 96.09 last after touching 96.00. 
Cash DXY 96.48 -0.39 

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex: 

Overview: An accelerated run on the US dollar continues. The euro, sterling, Australian and New Zealand dollars have risen to new highs. The greenback has dropped to new lows since 2015 against the Swiss franc. Japan's efforts to protect its rice farmers triggered the ire of President Trump. The "reciprocal tariffs," which could come back to the fore in a week, would be around 24% on Japan if no agreement is struck. While all the G10 currencies are firmer today, the yen leads with around a 0.75% gain. In addition to the trade disruption, a drag is coming from the decline in US rates. The 2- and 10-year yields are at new two-month lows. All but a few emerging market currencies are higher today, led by the 1.4% jump in the Taiwanese dollar as life insurance companies reportedly boosted hedge ratios. 

Outside of Japan and Australia, Asia Pacific equities advanced. Three markets rose more than 1% (New Zealand, Taiwan, and Thailand). Europe's Stoxx 600 is off about 0.2% after the 0.4% loss yesterday. US index futures are slightly underwater too. Bonds are bid. Benchmark 10-year rates tumbled 4-5 bp Japan and the Antipodeans. European rates are also mostly 4-5 bp lower. The 10-year US Treasury yield is off a little more than three basis points and is slightly below 4.20%. The weaker dollar and lower rates are helping gold extend yesterday's recovery from low since May 20 (~$3249) to $3346 today. August WTI is confined to a narrow range of a little more than 30 cents on either side of $65. 

USD: The Dollar Index succumbed to the selling pressure, perhaps encouraged by continued decline in US rates. It recorded a new [sic] since late Q1 22 (~96.45). The two-year yield is off around 30 bp since June 16. The market is getting more aggressive about the trajectory of Fed policy....

....MUCH MORE