From Brian Wang's Next Big Future substack, February 23:
In 2015, Waitbutwhy.com had some articles and diagrams explaining how the artificial intelligence revolution of a technological singularity would play out. The diagram above shows how there would be a series of improvement rates that would get steeper and steeper and faster and faster.
My article from yesterday explains how 12-20 years ago we shifted from Moore's law to GPU scaling to AI-LLM scaling and now to XAI scaling speed.
Moore law. -double every 2 years, 1000X compute in 20 years (40-60 year duration)
GPU-AI-LLM scaling - 5X every year in AI compute, 15000 times in 6 years (12 years of duration)
XAI scaling since April 2024 to today and projected through at least 2026 and out to 2030 (11-15X every 6-9 months, 4 million-200 million in 6 years.
A debatable AGI will be in 2025. This will be Grok 4, Grok video and Grok voice. Second half of 2025, unsupervised general robotaxi, thousands (~10K) teslabots in factories doing useful work.
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI): Sometimes referred to as Strong AI, or Human-Level AI, Artificial General Intelligence refers to a computer that is as smart as a human across the board—a machine that can perform any intellectual task that a human being can.
Clear AGI and debatable ASI (superintelligence in 2026).
Clear superintelligence in 2027. It will no longer be reasonably debatable that superintelligence has arrived in 2027. In 2028-2029, those still saying superintelligence is not here will be viewed as just in denial....
....MUCH MORE
If his timeline is anywhere close to what actually transpires the next few years are going to be one heck of a ride.
