The fall of the rouble has accelerated in recent days (higher is weaker):
From 83 RUB to buy a buck in June to 110.28 last
From Pravda, November 27:
The collapse of the ruble and the collapse in the Russian stock market
The ruble went into free fall. Two impulse phases of the ruble collapse: from August 27 to October 9, 2024 (+18.3%, if estimated by the growth of the yuan exchange rate, where there are still some market trades) and from November 12 to the current moment (over 9.2%), and from November 21 they went into free fall with acceleration. As a result, the yuan against the ruble has grown by almost 27% since August 27.
In terms of the aggressiveness of the collapse, the devaluation of the ruble even surpassed the sad events of mid-2023 (in intensity and scale over a comparable period).
In the modern history of currency trading, there have been only a few comparable or more dramatic episodes: at the beginning of 2023, the devaluation of the ruble against the yuan reached 28% in 65 trading days, but then there was a way out of the phase of extreme over-strengthening.
And so the list is short: Feb-Mar.22, Mar.20, Jan.16, Aug.15, Dec.14 and Feb.09 – 6 times in 20 years. In all cases, this was accompanied by: a crisis in the economy, a degradation of the balance of payments and/or a collapse in oil prices, and/or a powerful outflow of capital from non-residents, and/or sanctions and geopolitical aggravation.
Now there is still no formal crisis (on the contrary, the economy is growing above trend), the current account is expanding, oil is stable, non-residents are blocked or left in early autumn, geopolitics is no different from everything that was 2.5 years ago, and the new sanctions are not so terrible, but ... is something wrong here?....
....MUCH MORE
Meanwhile the MOEX index at the stock exchange is down 23% over the last six months.
