Friday, April 5, 2024

In Case You Missed It: Fortune Magazine/Boston Consulting Group's Future 50 Companies

The list comes out in December but for some reason only popped out of the queue today.

From Fortune, December 4, 2023:

....To help investors cut through this kind of noise, Boston Consulting Group and Fortune teamed up in 2017 to create the Future 50. Our ranking assesses the long-term revenue growth prospects of more than 1,700 of the world’s largest public companies—judging them by a measure we call vitality. Our vitality index is based on two complementary pillars: a top-down, market-based assessment of a company’s growth potential, and a bottom-up analysis of its capacity to deliver, based on financial and nonfinancial metrics—including long-term strategic orientation, technology and investments, people, and structure. These factors are weighted based on their contribution to long-term growth using an AI model, and boiled down to a vitality score. (Read more on our methodology here.)

Over time, the Future 50 has delivered consistently on its revenue-growth potential, with all of our past cohorts beating the broader market on growth. Over the longer term, outperformance in growth translates into superior returns. However, this is not a linear process, since total shareholder returns display significant volatility over time. Accordingly, our 2017, 2018, and 2019 cohorts have outperformed the market in returns, while the 2020 and 2021 cohorts lag behind, at least for now.

Chart shows how the S&P 500 and MCSI world index have performed relative to Fortune's Future 50 from 2017 to 2021.

Why tech dominates
The tech sector faced significant headwinds in 2022 and 2023, as rising capital costs and increased investor scrutiny of profitability sent stocks plummeting and catalyzed a wave of layoffs. However, our analysis suggests that these are short-term corrections, and that the long-term growth potential of the sector is alive and well. The IT and communication services sectors continue to dominate this index, accounting for 28 of this year’s Future 50.....

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The list: 

The Top 10

  1. 1
    Snowflake
  2. 2
    Datadog
  3. 3
    CrowdStrike Holdings
  4. 4
    Roblox
  5. 5
    Li Auto
  6. 6
    Cloudflare
  7. 7
    BILL Holdings
  8. 8
    ZoomInfo Technologies
  9. 9
    DoorDash
  10. 10
    EVE Energy

....MUCH MORE

Methodology for the Future 50 (2023)

To identify the Future 50, the BCG Henderson Institute examined more than 1,000 publicly traded companies with at least $20 billion in market value or $10 billion in revenue in the 12 months through the end of 2022.

Thirty percent of a company’s score is based on market potential—defined as its expected future growth as determined by financial markets. This is assessed by calculating the proportion of its market value that is not attributable to the earnings stream from its existing business model.

The other 70% is based on a company’s capacity to deliver against this potential. This score comprises 19 factors, selected for their ability to predict growth over the following five years, which fall into four categories:....

....MUCH MORE