Wednesday, February 7, 2024

"Wall Street titans are betting big on insurers. What could go wrong?" (plus Warren Buffet stops by)

From The Economist, January 23:

How private-markets giants are overhauling the financial system 

Blackstone listed on the New York Stock Exchange during the summer of 2007. Doing so just before the global financial crisis was hardly auspicious, and come early 2009 the firm’s shares had lost almost 90% of their value. By the time the two other members of America’s private-markets troika rang the bell, Wall Street had been battered. KKR listed on July 15th 2010, the same day Congress passed the Dodd-Frank Act, overhauling bank regulation. Apollo followed eight months later. Each firm told investors a similar story: private equity, the business of buying companies with debt, was their speciality.

Yet as the economy recovered, private-markets firms flourished—emerging as the new kings of Wall Street. The biggest put more and more money into credit, infrastructure and property. By 2022 total assets under management had reached $12trn. Those at Apollo, Blackstone and KKR have risen from $420bn to $2.2trn over the past decade. Thanks to the firms’ diversification, their shares rose by 67% on average during 2023, even as higher interest rates caused buy-outs to grind to a halt. Private equity has plenty of critics, but the model of raising and investing funds—whether to buy companies or lend to them—seldom worries regulators. If things go wrong, losses are shouldered by a fund’s institutional investors and humiliated fund managers struggle to raise money again. There is little threat to financial stability.

The latest development in the industry is upending this dynamic. Private-markets giants are buying and partnering with insurers on an unprecedented scale, which is transforming their business models, as they expand their lending operations and sometimes their balance-sheets. America’s $1.1trn market for fixed annuities, a type of retirement-savings product offered by life insurers, has been the focus so far. But Morgan Stanley, a bank, reckons that asset managers could eventually pursue insurance assets worth $30trn worldwide. Regulators worry that this is making the insurance industry riskier, exposing policymakers and perhaps even the wider financial system. Is the expansion by private-markets giants a land-grab by fast-and-loose investors in an important corner of finance? Or is it the intended consequence of a more tightly policed banking system?

Apollo, which has a well-deserved reputation for financial acrobatics, is leading the way. In 2009 it invested in Athene, a newly formed reinsurance business based in Bermuda. By 2022, when Apollo merged with Athene, the operation had grown to sell more fixed annuities than any other insurer in America. Today Apollo manages more than $300bn on behalf of its insurance business. During the first three quarters of 2023, the firm’s “spread-related earnings”, the money it earned investing policyholders’ premiums, came to $2.4bn, or nearly two-thirds of total earnings.

Imitation can be a profitable form of flattery. KKR’s tie-up with Global Atlantic, an insurer it finished buying this month, resembles Apollo’s bet. Blackstone, meanwhile, prefers to take minority stakes. It now manages $178bn of insurance assets, collecting handsome fees. Brookfield and Carlyle have backed large Bermuda-based reinsurance outfits. TPG is discussing partnerships. Smaller investment firms are also involved. All told, life insurers owned by investment firms have amassed assets of nearly $800bn. And the traffic has not been entirely one-way. In November Manulife, a Canadian insurer, announced a deal to buy CQS, a private-credit investor....

....MUCH MORE

Here's a guy with major insurance and reinsurance operations:

....And then there's 2011's "The Porn Shop Operators Strike Again: Harry & David files for bankruptcy";

``You can sell it to Berkshire, and we'll put it in the Metropolitan Museum; it'll have a wing all by itself; it'll be there forever,'' he says at the February meeting.
``Or you can sell it to some porn shop operator, and he'll take the painting and he'll make the boobs a little bigger and he'll stick it up in the window, and some other guy will come along in a raincoat, and he'll buy it.''

—Warren Buffett
June 25, 2008

On why a business may prefer selling to Berkshire Hathaway rather than a private equity firm.

I know Warren is talking down the bidding pressure that PE firms might put on the price he has to pay for privately held businesses but looking at his comments on PE over the years it's more than that:
He actually loathes private equity and its practitioners.... 

Last seen in April 2020's "Berkshire Hathaway as Idealized Private Equity".