From Fortune:
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warns no one will be able to escape the claws of AI—and that sets it apart from the dotcom bubble: ‘This is not hype’
When it comes to artificial intelligence there are two camps: those who are skeptical about how much AI will impact our future and those who believe it will change the world forever. JPMorgan Chase’s CEO Jamie Dimon falls firmly in the latter group.
Whether or not you currently work with technology, the billionaire boss of the New York–based bank has even insisted that nearly all professions will get an AI makeover.
"This is not hype,” the Wall Street titan told CNBC. "This is real.”
Dimon revealed that he’s got 200 workers at JPMorgan dedicated to researching the wave of large language models, from Bing and Bard to ChatGPT—including how they could be used internally.
AI will eventually "be used in almost every job," he concluded.
Dimon, who has previously called AI “critical to our company’s future success,” has in the past said that the technology can be used to help Chase develop new products, drive customer engagement, improve productivity, and enhance risk management.
And he’s putting his money where his mouth is: The banking behemoth advertised more than 3,500 AI-related roles between February and April last year, according to data from consultancy Evident....
....MUCH MORE
He goes on to say that this isn't a bubble but there he could be wrong. So much of the valuations we are seeing are based on coming attractions that any hint of, say, the market for GPUs not growing to $400 billion per year (Huang on NVDA's earnings call) would whack the multiples that the hardware companies are fetching. I think we might be in a valuation bubble.
On the other hand, our guide is Hoare's bank in 1720. If Interested see:
May 2023
On Bubbles
July 1, 2023
"Nvidia’s Next Big Opportunity Is AI-as-a-Service. Here’s Why." (NVDA)
January 19, 2024
AI: Lessons From The South Sea Bubble
February 6, 2024
Nvidia Collapses (gives back half yesterday's gains) plus Isaac Newton and Daniel Defoe do a drive by (NVDA)
And the outro from February 7's "Chips: "Arm stock soars 35% as chip maker sees ‘signs of recovery’ in its market, raises guidance for the year" (Quick, Hire a Kid)":
There's an interesting dichotomy developing in the markets, one that we've seen before.
The old pros are cautious, befuddled and a bit scared. Folks with less than a decade at the market are making money.
Adam Smith noted it in the 'sixties bull market in The Money Game. Our comments alternating with 'Adam Smith':
There is one wonderful chapter where the consummate pragmatic speculator, the Great Winfield, is lamenting his performance problems in a wildly speculative bull market.
“My boy,” said the Great Winfield over the phone. “Our trouble is that we are too old for this market. The best players in this kind of a market have not passed their twenty-ninth birthdays. Come on over and I will show you my solution.”
So Adam Smith goes over and finds three new faces in the Great Winfield’s office.
My solution to the current market,” the Great Winfield said. “Kids. This is a kids’ market. This is Billy the Kid, Johnny the Kid, and Sheldon the Kid.” The three Kids stood up without taking their eyes from the moving tape, shook hands, and called me “sir” respectfully.
“Aren’t they cute?” the Great Winfield asked. “Aren’t they fuzzy? Look at them, like teddy bears. It’s their market. I have taken them on for the duration.”
Winfield then describes how much money Billy the Kid is making in computer leasing stocks like Leasco Data Processing and Randolph Computer that he has heavily leveraged with bank borrowing....
And the really spooky bit, for me anyway, SHALE:
...Sheldon the Kid waved his hand for recognition.
“This one will really take you back,” said the Great Winfield. “Sheldon’s Western Oil Shale has gone from three to thirty.”
“Sir!” said Sheldon. “The Western United States is sitting on a pool of oil five times as big as all the known reserves in the world – shale oil. Technology is coming along fast. When it comes, Equity Oil can earn seven hundred and fifty dollars a share.
It’s selling at twenty-four dollars. The first commercial underground nuclear test is coming up. The possibilities are so big no one can comprehend them.”
“Shale oil! Shale oil!” said the Great Winfield. “Takes you way back, doesn’t it. I bet you can barely remember it.”
“The shale oil play,” I said dreaming. “My old MG TC. A blond girl, tan from the summer sun, in the Hamptons, beer on the beach, ‘Unchained Melody,’ the little bar in the Village.”
“See? See?” said the Great Winfield. “The flow of the seasons. Life begins again. It’s marvelous. It’s like having a son! My boys! My Kids!”
The Great Winfield had made his point. Memory can get in the way of such a jolly market, that malaise that comes with the instantly gone, flickering feeling of déjà vu. We have all been here before.
“The strength of my kids is that they are too young to remember anything bad, and they are making so much money they feel invincible,” said the Great Winfield.
“Now you know and I know that one day the orchestra will stop playing and the wind will rattle through the broken window panes, and the anticipation of this freezes us. All of these kids but one will be broke, and that one will be the multi-millionaire, the Arthur Rock of the new generation. There is always one, and maybe we will find him.”
In late 2006 both Bloomberg and Raymond James' Jeff Saut were reminded of the above:
Bloomberg, Aug. 3, 2006
Go Short, Mildred -- the Kids Are Taking Over: Susan Antilla
Saut, Nov. 20, 2006
“A Kid’s Market?!”
When dredging up this memory we sometimes hear the Electric Light Orchestra supplying the soundtrack:
