Tuesday, February 27, 2024

Capital Markets: "Weak US Durable Goods may Herald Pullback in Capex"

From Marc to Market:

Overview: Most of the G10 currencies are trading quietly in narrow ranges today. After a slightly firmer than expected national CPI reading, which still moderated, and a pullback in US yields, the Japanese yen is the strongest of the major currencies. The dollar has pulled back from almost JPY151 to nearly JPY150. The New Zealand dollar is the weakest, off about 0.2% ahead of tomorrow's central bank meeting. After selling $127 bln of coupons yesterday, the US Treasury comes back with $42 bln seven-year note sales and $80 bln in a 42-day cash-management bill. A sharp drop in Boeing orders will make for a poor durable goods orders report, but more generally, capex looks set to slow after a sharp expansion in Q2 23 and Q3 23, perhaps ahead of the November election. Meanwhile, congressional leaders go to the White House today to see if a partial government shutdown at the end of the week can be averted and aid to Ukraine secured.

After profit-taking was seen yesterday, most large Asia Pacific equity markets advanced today, including a 1.2% rally in China's CSI 300 and a nearly 1.5% rally in mainland shares that trade in Hong Kong. Taiwan and South Korean markets were exceptions and recorded modest losses. Europe's Stoxx 600 has steadied after losing about 0.35% yesterday, its biggest loss in nearly two weeks. US index futures are steady to slightly firmer. European 10-year yields are mostly two basis points lower. Ten-year Gilt yields are around three basis points lower after the BRC reported the smallest increase in shop prices (2.5% year-over-year) in two years. Gold is firm, but the yellow metal remains within last Friday's range (~$2016-$2041). April WTI recovered yesterday from a six-day low near $75.85 to $7800 and is trading quietly today with a $77-handle....

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