The first time the phrase "production hell" really registered for me was in 2017 when Elon Musk ended up sleeping at the gigafactory trying to get the Model 3 into production. He sounded very ragged and frazzled in his communications with the outside world.
But he pulled it off.
From IEEE Spectrum, January 26:
Recent solid-state battery announcements by Volkswagen and QuantumScape are raising hopes in the electric-vehicle market, but automotive battery experts are warning that the road to widespread, solid-state success is still a long and arduous one. A single breakthrough, as if from above, is not likely to turn the whole industry on its nose anytime soon.
“Solid-state is a great technology,” noted Bob Galyen, owner of Galyen Energy and former chief technology officer for the Chinese battery giant Contemporary Amperex Technology Ltd. (CATL). “But it’s going to be just like lithium-ion was in terms of the length of time it will take to hit the market. And lithium-ion took a long time to get there.”
“I haven’t seen cost numbers that are even close to competing with liquid-state, lithium-ion batteries.“ —Bob Galyen, Galyen Energy
Galyen and other experts consulted by IEEESpectrum noted that recent announcements by Volkswagen, QuantumScape, Toyota, and NIO have resulted in impressive stock market performance. However, these same experts noted a pointed skepticism toward the technical merits of these announcements. None could isolate anything on the horizon indicating that solid-state technology can escape the engineering and “production hell” that lies ahead.
The remaining hurdles will involve validating existing solid-state battery technologies (currently in use for more limited, often medical, applications) for cars and trucks. The adoption curve, experts say, will depend on the product’s ability to be validated in terms of performance, life, and cost characteristics.
Solid-state cells, so-named for their use of a solid electrolyte, are seen as a key to the future of the electric car because they potentially offer greater safety and energy, as well as much faster recharge times. Solid-state cells differ from conventional lithium-ion batteries in their use of a glass or ceramic electrolyte, instead of a liquid composed of lithium salts. Automakers are keen on solid-state batteries’ future, because the technology offers greater thermal stability than liquid-based batteries, thus allowing for substantially faster recharge, among other advantages.
Solid-state has also been the subject of recent announcements from battery manufacturers and mainstream automakers alike. In early January, Volkswagen Group’s PowerCo SE battery company said it tested lithium-metal cells from QuantumScape, achieving 1,000 charging cycles with 95 percent of the cell’s capacity still intact. The company said in a statement that the cell’s life-performance was analogous to “an electric car that could drive more than 500,000 kilometers (300,000 miles) without any noticeable loss of range.”....
....MUCH MORE
Good luck to QuantumScape. Yesterday we posted Team China: "CATL, BYD, others unite in China for solid-state battery breakthrough". That's the world's largest battery producer teamed up with the world's largest EV producer. And as noted in 2021:
World's Largest Battery Maker To Introduce New Sodium Ion Battery To Help Ease Lithium Shortages
Here we are breaking our general rule against posting every 'breakthrough' or change in chemistry or manufacturing process for the second time in a week* but when it's CATL or Tesla you almost have to pay attention or risk getting stuck as the market moves away from you.
On the other hand we have no interest in something like QuantumScape which recently reiterated their target dates for commercialization as 2024 -2025. Too much can happen in the meantime.And a small underfunded company may not be able to react....
And QS stock price action over that time period:
