We haven't looked at Oatly in a while:
More on that after the jumps. Seventy cents last.
First up, BarChart, November 20:
Rising from the Oats: Unraveling the Potential Behind Oatly's (OTLY) Risky Rebound
Is it time to buy some of this year’s worst-performing growth stocks? That’s a question that Barchart content partner The Motley Fool recently posed. And if you happen to be talking about Oatly (OTLY), a Swedish food company specializing in oat-based alternatives to dairy products, then yes, it’s possible that it could be an acquisitive opportunity.
Stop right there. If you don’t know Oatly, the first thing you’ll probably do is to pull up its price chart. And at that point, you’ll realize that we’re talking about a literal penny stock. Granted, it stormed over 42% higher in the trailing five sessions from last Friday but still. Given the terrible losses the speculative enterprise incurred, the robust percentage gains only took OTLY stock to 82 cents.
That’s your warning. Honestly, I don’t want to hear complaints about OTLY stock turning against you if it tumbles from here on out. It’s an extremely risky gamble, having hemorrhaged 59% of equity value since the January opener. If that wasn’t enough of a warning, the Barchart Technical Opinion indictor flashes in a bright red box, “SELL.”
If you have any inkling about putting down money that can hurt you if you lose it, believe me, the universe or [insert favorite deity here] is speaking to you. Loud and clear. Also, my Twi…err…X account does not provide a messaging stream to the heavens above although you are free to sound off should you please.
With those caveats out of the way, Oatly on a fundamental level does seem to provide relevance. According to information cited by Supermarket News, 87% of Generation Z respondents to a 2022 consumer survey reported that they could be convinced to buy plant-based alternatives.
Since that’s the emerging consumer generation, it’s practically the most important market. Even better, the technical argument suggests that OTLY stock isn’t done rising just yet.
OTLY Stock May be All About That Gamma Squeeze
Gamma squeezes are powerful. Similar to a short squeeze, the underlying catalyst centers on panic – the panic that if short traders don’t cover their bearish bets, they’ll incur more damage. For those of you who aren’t familiar with gamma squeezes, I encourage you to read my Barchart article on the topic. However, for a quick breakdown, an illustration is helpful.Let’s imagine that you contracted to sell a car to a buyer at an agreed-upon price and on a specific delivery date. These transactions happen all the time. However, in perhaps 99% (?) of the time, the seller has physical ownership of the vehicle in question. Let’s say that you left out this important piece of the puzzle.
No matter, you know you’re going to get the car, right? Since wheeling and dealing is your forte, you decide to settle the deal first before bothering to acquire the soon-to-be-sold car first. Well, let’s just say that the car in question is a special edition and for whatever reason, it spiked dramatically in value.
Now, you’ve got a choice to make. Do you bite the bullet before you suffer significant financial damage (because you’re already contracted to sell the car at an agreed-upon price) or do you wait it out? However, if you choose the latter, the clock might run out on you.
That’s basically the situation we have with OTLY stock. As Barchart’s unusual stock options volume indicator shows, OTLY represented one of the most aberrant trades, with total volume jumping to 11,248 contracts, a 456% leap from the trailing one-month average volume. Even more conspicuous, 10,921 contracts stemmed from call option demand.
On the surface, that might seem bullish for OTLY stock and it probably is but in an ironic sense. You see, Fintel’s options flow screener shows that likely institutional investors engaged a huge chunk of that call volume. However, the screener shows that these were sold (written) calls.
In other words, major entities underwrote the risk that OTLY stock will not be above the underlying strike price of 50 cents by the Jan. 19, 2024 expiration date. That’s a risky wager for the shorts....
....MUCH MORE
And at MarketPlace, November 17: "Why does oat milk cost more than dairy milk?"
You ever try to milk an oat plant?
Our last visit to OTLY was April 29, 2022's "Post-IPO Performance Of Three Of The Most Anticipated Flotations Of Recent Years (COIN; OTLY)". It consisted of two charts. Astute reader knows what they looked like.
Prior to that we looked at Oadly on, November 15, 2021, with some of the prior links in the outro:
....With Beyond Meats and Oatly getting whacked it's probably a good thing the other company in the WEF portfolio, Ÿnsect, isn't publicly traded.
Although, maybe, it would be protected by the gratuitous umlaut "Ÿ", it has a sort of a heavy metal vibe to it.
Previously:
And then, when their Ivermectin supplies were cut off following the Rolling Stone exposé, the unwashed hordes switched to anything horse-related that might treat their Covid fever dreams:
Covid-19: As The Peasants Attempt To Self-Medicate With Horse Food
The Price Of Oats Skyrockets
- If Klaus Schwab Won't Return My Calls, How Will I know When To Buy Oatly? (OTLY)
- Watch Out Oatly: "Oat Prices Hit Seven Year High" (OTLY)
- Oatly short seller says stock worth less than $10 after accusing company of overstating revenue
"How Oatly went from a decades-old obscure brand to a $10 billion IPO" (OTLY)
But first, an hysterical observation from Reuters Breakingviews:
Oatly often boasts its oat milk is particularly good for producing froth. The Swedish company has the same effect on investors. Shares in the maker of oat-based dairy substitutes opened 30% above their initial public offering price of $17 on Thursday, valuing it at around $13 billion. That should lure other purveyors of plant-based foods to the stock market.
The company led by Toni Petersson has enjoyed a dazzling rise. Powered by sharp marketing slogans such as "it’s like milk, but made for humans", and the backing of investors including Blackstone and Oprah Winfrey, Oatly has ridden the vogue for foods that produce fewer greenhouse gases and preserve water and land. Sales more than doubled to $421 million in 2020....MORE
Is it "an hysterical" or "a hysterical"? Churchill went with "A" for his book "A History of the English-Speaking Peoples" and he was pretty good with the words thing but sometimes "An" seems to fit better.
Be all that as it may be, here's CNBC, May 20:....
So again, who actually knows? The six-month chart shows a couple touches of the 50 cent line:
