At least that is what pops out of the latest computer runs of the various dynamical and statistical models that IRI/Columbia Uni. present each month in the ENSO Forecast Quick Look.
First, a note on terminology for normal people who don't obsess about this stuff:
- ENSO = the El Niño/Southern Oscillation
- ENSO Neutral = the ocean surface temperature anomaly in the ENSO 3.4 region is between +0.5°C and -0.5°C.
- El Niño/La Niña conditions exist when the anomaly is greater than (Niño) or less than (Niña) the half-degree cut-off for neutral.
- A full blown El Niño/La Niña is declared when the conditions persist for three overlapping three-month periods i.e. five consecutive months.
And from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, June 8:
ENSO Forecast
June 2023 Quick Look
Published: June 8, 2023A monthly summary of the status of El Niño, La Niña, and the Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, based on the NINO3.4 index (120-170W, 5S-5N)
As of mid-May 2023, the previous negative sea surface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific have dissipated. Currently, the basin is characterized by warmer sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern and central Pacific regions, while the values in the western Pacific are currently in the ENSO-neutral range. Key oceanic and atmospheric variables are now consistent with developing El Niño conditions. CPC issued an El Niño watch in April 2023, signaling the start of the warm phase of the ENSO, which remains effective in May 2023. According to the IRI ENSO prediction plume, most of the models forecast an El Niño that persists throughout the entire forecast period.....
....MUCH MORE
The thicker lines are the averages of the two types of models and the consolidated model forecast from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.
For a deeper dive, IRI/Columbia also features the CPC ENSO Update.
