Monday, June 26, 2023

"The China-driven metals ‘super cycle’ is over, Jefferies says"

But you knew that.

Oddly enough, China continued buying copper in May, almost as if they knew the yuan would be devalued and the money would be better invested in commodities than in short-term paper:

TradingView Chart


It cost 6.7122 yuan to buy a dollar on Feb 1; up to 6.9105 on May 1; and 7.2133 yuan to buy a dollar  right now.

Iron ore, natural gas and soybeans were also on the shopping list. We'll check on this month's Chinese imports after the July 4th holiday.

From Bloomberg via, June 23:

The halcyon days of China underpinning demand for metals like copper, aluminum and iron ore are over, according to Jefferies LLC.

With China facing a falling population and geopolitical challenges, longer-term demand will now be dominated by the US and Europe, Jefferies analysts led by Christopher LaFemina said in a note.

“China is more likely to be a headwind than a tailwind for demand over the next decade,” they said. The China super cycle, driven by urbanization and industrialization, is over, and the energy transition and decarbonization cycle has just begun, the analysts said.

Asia’s largest economy has been a crucial support for metals markets over the last two to three decades as the country went on an infrastructure-building binge. However, China’s plodding post-virus recovery shows it may lack the horsepower required to buoy global demand as it transitions to a more service-oriented economy.

That dynamic has been reflected in markets this year, with most metals falling even after Beijing abandoned its Covid Zero policy at the end of last year....


Front U.S. copper futures up 2.00 cents at 3.8040