Solid analysis plus Condottieri ref's, I'm sold.*
From Austin Bay's Strategy Page, June 28:
A suspect deal between Russian President Vladimir Putin and mercenary commander Yevgeny Prigozhin ended the short-lived but stunning Wagner Revolt.
Revolt it was. The Wagner force took Rostov, a major city and the site of the Russian Army's headquarters for the Ukraine War. A Wagner flying column with tanks and mechanized infantry rolled toward Moscow. Wagner forces fought at least two heavy skirmishes with Russian Army units and shot down a half-dozen helicopters and a couple of fixed-wing aircraft. That's real combat, not a Potemkin faux-revolt.
Putin angrily called Prigozhin a traitor. Prigozhin clearly launched an attack on the Russian state.
Prigozhin has made several claims. Since January he's criticized Defense Ministry warfighting decisions, bluntly arguing the war is run by corrupt incompetents. The Kremlin's recent decision to disband his mercenary organization outraged him. On June 10 Wagner fighters were told to sign government military contracts by July 1. Prigozhin also claimed his move was a response to an attack (presumably by the Russian Army) that killed over 30 Wagner fighters. "We started our march because of an injustice," he said in an audio statement. The Wall Street Journal reports he intended to seize senior Defense Ministry leaders traveling in southern Russia. When intelligence services exposed the plot, he attacked.
Prigozhin has done well for a brutal thug and a caterer. He casts himself and his men as Russian patriots fighting for Russia in Ukraine, Syria and Africa. He definitely has many Russian admirers.
With the plot exposed, it appears Prigozhin gambled his bold act would ignite a mass revolt. That's grandiose to the point of delusion.....
....I distrust mercenary organizations. In August 2000 I recorded an NPR Morning Edition commentary expressing skepticism about the UN's proposal to hire mercenary peacekeepers. In the 14th century, Italian Condottieri (contractors) mercenary companies often disregarded the contracts with city-states and took power to themselves. Wagner has done that in the Central African Republic....
....MUCH MORE
*If interested see June 23's "Machiavelli on Mercenaries".
