Friday, June 30, 2023

Inflation: BEA PCE Deflator, Headline Up 3.8%, Core Up 4.6%

 From the Bureau of Economic Analysis, June 30:

Personal Income and Outlays, May 2023

Personal income increased $91.2 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in May, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (table 3 and table 5). Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $86.7 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $18.9 billion (0.1 percent).

The PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3 percent (table 9). Real DPI increased 0.3 percent in May and real PCE decreased by less than 0.1 percent; goods decreased 0.4 percent and services increased 0.2 percent (tables 5 and 7)

  2023
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May
Percent change from preceding month
Personal income:  
     Current dollars 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4
Disposable personal income:  
     Current dollars 2.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.4
     Chained (2012) dollars 1.7 0.3 0.3 -0.1 0.3
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE):  
     Current dollars 1.9 0.3 0.1 0.6 0.1
     Chained (2012) dollars 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0
Price indexes:  
     PCE 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.1
     PCE, excluding food and energy 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3
Price indexes: Percent change from month one year ago
     PCE 5.4 5.0  4.2 4.3 3.8
     PCE, excluding food and energy 4.7 4.7  4.6 4.7 4.6
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....Prices

From the preceding month, the PCE price index for May increased 0.1 percent (table 9). Prices for goods decreased 0.1 percent and prices for services increased 0.3 percent. Food prices increased 0.1 percent and energy prices decreased 3.9 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3 percent. Detailed monthly PCE price indexes can be found on Table 2.4.4U.

From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for May increased 3.8 percent (table 11). Prices for goods increased 1.1 percent and prices for services increased 5.3 percent. Food prices increased 5.8 percent and energy prices decreased 13.4 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 4.6 percent from one year ago.

Real PCE

The decrease of less than 0.1 percent in real PCE in May reflected a decrease of 0.4 percent in spending on goods that was partly offset by an increase of 0.2 percent in spending on services (table 7). Within goods, the largest contributor to the decrease was spending on new motor vehicles and parts (led by new light trucks). Within services, the largest contributors to the increase were “other” services (led by international travel) and spending on transportation services (led by public transportation). Detailed information on monthly real PCE spending can be found on Table 2.4.6U....