Monday, June 12, 2023

Capital Markets: "Ahead of the Week's Central Bank Meetings, Risk Appetites Stoked"

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex: 

Overview: Today may be the calm ahead of a tomorrow's US CPI and rate decisions by the Fed, ECB, BOJ, and PBOC over the next few days. Most large bourses in the Asia Pacific region rose and Europe's Stoxx 600 is snapping a three-day decline. US index futures are trading higher. US 10-year yield is slightly firmer as are core European benchmark yields. The dollar is under broad pressure and is weaker against the G10 currencies. Against emerging market currencies, it is also mostly softer, but there are a few notable exceptions. They include Turkey, China, and Mexico. Gold is a range of a little more than $5 on either side of $1960.

July WTI is soft and its inability to recover after what appeared to be supportive developments adds to the bearish tone. It was denied by both sides that a US-Iranian deal was near, which would ostensibly make Iranian oil available (supply). The US has begun refilling its strategic reserves (demand) could have supported prices. The US announced it bought 3 mln barrels of oil for the SPR at an average price of $73 and the Department of Energy announced plans to purchases another 3 mln barrels. The contracts will be awarded by the end of the month for September delivery. September WTI is trading near $70. The low for the year was set in early May near $64.20. The US sold the crude at an average price of about $95 a barrel. July WTI is off nearly 2.8% near $68.25. It fell by around 3.2% in the last two sessions. It has been down to almost $67.65 today and the low set in late May was closer to $67.00....

....MUCH MORE