Wednesday, April 19, 2023

Capital Markets: "The Dollar Comes Back Bid"

 From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

Overview: It has taken some time, but the dollar has found better traction. It traded above JPY135 for the first time since mid-March and yesterday's setback has been mostly recouped against the other G10 currencies. Sterling is the most resilient after higher-than-expected inflation. Equities are lower. Japan's Nikkei snapped an eight-day advance and most of the other large bourses in the region (except Australia and South Korea) fell. Europe's Stoxx 600 is off by almost 0.5%, which is sustained would be the largest loss since March 24. US equity futures are also under pressures. If this is risk-off, the bond market does not know it. Yields are up mostly 3-5 bp, while that higher inflation has lifted the 10-year Gilt yield nine basis points. The US 10-year Treasury yield is up nearly five basis points to about 3.62%, a new high for April. 

Higher yields and a stronger dollar have sent gold sharply lower. It peaked at the end of last week ahead of $2050 and traded down to around $1972 today. That is the lowest level since April 3. It has broken below the 20-day moving average (~$1992.50) but has not closed below it since March 9. Oil is also under pressures. June WTI approached its lowest level since OPEC+ announced cuts on April 2. A break of $79.00, the top of the gap, could see an effort to close it. The bottom of the gap is near $73.90. Lastly, we note that natgas is snapping a three-day and nearly 19% rally....

....MUCH MORE