The author of this piece, Dr. Tara O'Toole is Senior Vice-President of the CIA's venture capital arm, In-Q-Tel.
From IQT, February 2023:
Introduction
The next industrial revolution, already underway, will be made possible by new capabilities emerging from the life sciences and biotechnologies. This “biorevolution” will bring about a new era in our ability to prevent and treat disease. It will change how we design and manufacture almost everything and expand what it is possible to make, such as materials with new properties, replacement organs, and crops that resist pests and drought. The transition to biologically based production will significantly reduce the environmental damage caused by traditional manufacturing processes. New and emerging biotechnologies will also provide new tools to restore polluted environments and recover rare materials from waste. Fully developed, the biorevolution will enable a global shift towards carbon neutrality.
Our increasing capacity to use biology to serve human purposes stems from one of the most significant scientific insights of the past century: life is written in code. Biology is programmable. Instead of the 1s and 0s used by computers to code instructions, genetic instructions directing an organism’s inherited structure and functions are coded in the sequence of DNA’s four nucleic acids.
Thanks to advances in our understanding of molecular biology and the computational power and analytic techniques of the digital revolution, it is now possible to “read” the DNA software which directs the thousands of “protein robots” which maintain the essential processes that constitute living organisms. That is, we can use machines to determine the sequence of nucleic acids in a sample of DNA and thus “read” the organism’s genetic code. By comparing different genomes (an organism’s entire collection of genetic information), we can determine which genes do what and how different genes interact. We can also chemically assemble DNA strands to “write” genetic code. Finally, we are also learning to edit DNA – to add, subtract, or rearrange the genetic code of cells, instructing them to change their function. In other words, we are rapidly learning how to “read, write, and edit” the code of life.
These new scientific insights and capabilities catalyze fundamental changes across a range of industries that will profoundly impact the global economy. Although there is broad international agreement that economic activity based on biology and biotechnologies is essential and growing, there is no consensus definition of what industries or activities “the bioeconomy” encompasses. The U.S. National Academy of Sciences (NAS), based on available and inadequate data, estimated that in 2016, the U.S. bioeconomy accounted for about 5% of the U.S. GDP, approximately $959.2 billion. [1] European Union and United Nations estimates, using different definitions of the bioeconomy, estimate that the bioeconomic activities contributed 10% of Europe’s GDP for 2017-19. [2] Other independent analyses – also citing inadequate data – estimate that the U.S. bioeconomy has grown by about 10% annually for the past two decades [3], more than twice the rate of the private sector overall. [4] The authors of all these assessments state that the results are conservative and likely underestimate the scope and growth of the bioeconomy.
A more bullish and forward-looking analysis, The McKinsey Global Institute’s 2020 report, “The Bio Revolution” [5], asserts that 60% of physical inputs to the global economy could be made using biological processes, producing $2-4 trillion in direct economic potential between 2030-40, not counting downstream effects, and depending on the pace of innovation. McKinsey estimates that half of the bio revolution’s impact in the next 20 years will be in agriculture and consumer goods.
The Foundational Technologies of the Biorevolution
Four technologies are essential to the biorevolution and made it possible to read, write, and edit the genetic code which governs the function of all organisms, the “code of life”:
- DNA sequencing machines – DNA sequencing, the ability to accurately determine the sequence of nucleic acids in a sample of DNA, began in the 1970s. Sequencing technologies are increasingly inexpensive, accurate, and fast. The Human Genome Project took 13 years and cost over $3 billion to sequence a single human genome. Today, the most powerful machines can sequence a human genome in less than a day for under $1000. Other, more portable sequencers can read a (much smaller) bacterial genome in less than an hour.
- DNA synthesis technologies – DNA synthesis is the construction of strands of DNA having specific nucleic acid sequences without a template. Synthesis technologies are relatively slow and costly compared to sequencing. Still, innovative companies are pursuing advances in what is already a $1.3 billion industry. [6] CRISPR-CAS9 gene editing tools – CRISPR was first recognized as a valuable gene editing tool less than ten years ago. Many versions have since been developed and enable one to add, alter or remove DNA sequences accurately, rapidly, and cheaply.
- Biological “big data” –Genomic sequencing produces large amounts of data. Multiple genomes must be sequenced and compared to understand the role of particular genes or the relationship between different species.
- Larger, more heterogenous genomic “libraries” are instrumental in identifying gene functions and interactions. In addition to extensive collections of genomic data, additional “metadata” describing individual traits and conditions is essential to probing relationships between genetics and function. Advanced computational approaches – machine learning, artificial intelligence, etc. – are integral to unraveling the dense data fields, the “big data” that code these relationships.
Integrating these four foundational biotechnologies to create living systems imbued with new functions or characteristics is the mission of engineered (aka “synthetic”) biology. Engineered biology began in the 1970s when scientists inserted a foreign gene encoding a desired product (a hormone) into bacteria, grew the bacteria cells, and harvested the product the cells had been directed to make. This effort became Genetech, arguably the first biotechnology company. This idea has since been taken to new levels....
....MUCH MORE (14 page PDF)
Dr. O'Toole was mentioned in a 2021 post, "Bioengineering The Age of Designer Plagues" after which I did a bit of research.
She's an interesting woman.
We have a couple dozen posts on In-Q-Tel, most have some version of this homely little observation:The CIA’s Venture-Capital Firm, Like Its Sponsor, Operates in the Shadows
As a side note, back in the early years of this century, especially immediately after the mass murders of 9/11, it was thought that investing alongside In-Q-Tel was the cool thing to do.
It took a while for the realization to sink in that they weren't necessarily in it for the money return to the VC's.
