Thursday, March 2, 2023

Capital Markets: "Higher for Longer Helps the Dollar while Weighs on Equities"

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

Overview: The jump in prices paid in yesterday's US ISM manufacturing coupled with the stronger eurozone inflation, with a new cyclical high reported in the core rate, underscores the market theme of higher-for-longer. This is seen as dollar supportive but also negative for risk-assets, including and especially equities. European benchmark 10-year yields are up another couple of basis points today and the 10-year US Treasury yield is pushing above 4% for the first time since last November. European two-year yields narrowly mixed, while the two-year US rate is reached almost 4.94%, a new high since 2007. 

Asia Pacific equities were mostly lower, with South Korea, returning from holiday, and Australia, notable exceptions. Europe's Stoxx 600 is lower for the third consecutive session. US equity futures are narrowly mixed. All the G10 currencies are weaker today, with the Scandis and New Zealand dollar (which outperformed yesterday) off around 0.6%, while the Canadian dollar and Swiss franc, the best performers today, are off about 0.2%. Most emerging market currencies are also softer. Here, the Korean won is a notable exception. Central European currencies are hit the hardest. Gold, which rallied nearly $50 in the past two sessions is being dragged lower by the rising dollar and interest rates. April WTI is trading at an eight-day high above $78.00. Last month's high was around $80.80....

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