Tuesday, February 21, 2023

Capital Markets: "Upside Surprise in UK's Flash PMI and Better-than-Expected January Public Finances Lift Sterling"

From Marc to Market:

Overview: Rising interest rates are weighing on risk appetites and the dollar is broadly stronger. Sterling is a notable exception after a stronger than expected flash PMI and better than expected public finances. The correlation between higher US rates and a weaker yen is increasing and the greenback looks poised to rechallenge the JPY135 area. A slightly better than expected preliminary PMI and hawkish minutes from the recent RBA meeting has done little to support the Australian dollar, which is among the weakest of the G10 currencies today. Nearly all the emerging market currencies are softer today.

While mainland Chinese equities and Korea and Taiwan eked out small gains, the other larger Asia Pacific bourses fell. Hong Kong and mainland shares that trade there posted the steepest declines (1.7%-1.9%, respectively). Europe's Stoxx 600 is giving back yesterday's gains plus some. It is the second losing session in the past three, something not seen this month. US equity futures are off 0.6%-0.8%. The US 10-year yield is six basis points higher to almost 3.88%. European yields are mostly 2-3 bp higher, though the 10-year UK Gilts yield has jumped 8 bp (to 3.55%) and the Italy's10-year yield is up 6 bp (to 4.39%). Gold was turned back yesterday from its attempt at $1850 and is testing the $1830 area. April WTI had peaked above $80 last week and approached $75 before the weekend. It is in the middle of that range now. Natural gas prices (US futures and Europe's benchmark are making marginal new lows. 

Asia Pacific....

....MUCH MORE