First up, from Creighton's Heider College of Business' Mid-America Survey, December 1:
November Survey Highlights:
• For the first time since May 2020, the overall index, or business barometer, plummeted below growth neutral.
• The overall index, or business barometer, has now fallen six of the past eight months.
• One in four supply managers rated higher input prices as the greatest 2023 challenge.
• The employment index dropped below growth neutral. This is the first time since the early days of the pandemic, June/July 2020, that the survey has registered two straight months of job losses.
• Due to labor shortages, approximately 65% of firms reported shortages of job applicants for available jobs.OMAHA, Neb. (Dec. 1, 2022) — The Creighton University Mid-America Business Conditions Index, a leading economic indicator for the nine-state region stretching from Minnesota to Arkansas, fell below growth neutral for the first time since early in the pandemic, May 2020.
Overall Index: The Business Conditions Index, which uses the identical methodology as the national Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and ranges between 0 and 100 with 50.0 representing growth neutral, sank to 48.0 from 53.1 in October.
The Mid-America report is produced independently from the national ISM.
“For the first time since the end of the 2020 recession in May 2020, Creighton’s monthly survey of manufacturing supply managers is flashing recession warnings for the first half of 2023. Since climbing to a 2022 high in March, the overall index has now fallen six of the past eight months,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, director of Creighton University’s Economic Forecasting Group and the Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics in the Heider College of Business.
“One in four supply managers rate higher input prices as the greatest 2023 challenge,” said Goss.
Employment: Despite solid growth in monthly economic activity over the past several months, manufacturers in the region have added jobs at only a modest pace. The November employment index dropped to 45.0 from 46.3 in October. This is the first time since the early days of the pandemic, June/July 2020, that the survey has registered two straight months of job losses.
“Due to labor shortages, approximately 65% of firms reported shortages of job applicants for available jobs,” said Goss.....
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And a factoid from Creighton's Rural Mainstreet Survey:
• Approximately, 60.9% of bank CEOs expect farmland prices to plateau at current prices, while 21.7% expect prices to decline over the period.
