Friday, September 2, 2022

The Last Fed Balance Sheet Report Of QT Phase I: Treasuries Up (a little), Mortgage Backed Securities Down $20 Billion

Two notes up front:

1) Because the cut-off for this report is August 31 it does not reflect the increased limits on Treasuries, from $30 billion to $60 billion per month and MBS's from $17.5 billion to $35 billion per month. Both targets kicked in on September 1.

2) Because the Fed has great flexibility on when settlement occurs and when to realize MBS roll-offs (one of the reasons we waited three weeks from the June 1 start date to begin publicly tracking) we don't know when the MBS decline actually happened, important in tracking liquidity in the system. (and also the reason the decline is larger than the $17.5 billion limit)

From The Federal Reserve Board's H.4.1 report, the front-page highlights of the two largest line items:

1. Factors Affecting Reserve Balances of Depository Institutions

Millions of dollars

Reserve Bank credit, related items, and
reserve balances of depository institutions at
Federal Reserve Banks

Averages of daily figures

Wednesday
Aug 31, 2022

Week ended
Aug 31, 2022

Change from week ended

Aug 24, 2022

Sep 1, 2021

Reserve Bank credit

 8,796,925

-   21,632

+  489,886

 8,789,846

Securities held outright1

 8,412,150

-   19,775

+  611,369

 8,406,632

U.S. Treasury securities

 5,700,535

+      441

+  340,168

 5,694,997

Bills2

   326,044

         0

         0

   326,044

Notes and bonds, nominal2

 4,900,097

-    1,170

+  283,252

 4,893,074

Notes and bonds, inflation-indexed2

   374,868

+      149

+   18,893

   375,761

Inflation compensation3

    99,527

+    1,463

+   38,024

   100,118

Federal agency debt securities2

     2,347

         0

         0

     2,347

Mortgage-backed securities4

 2,709,268

-   20,216

+  271,201

 2,709,288

....MUCH MORE

And from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis' FRED database the total assets on the balance sheet including many smaller line items that aren't part of QT but do move the weekly totals around (we saw two weeks ago that fully half of that week's total decline was a decrease in interest due the Fed and other receivables) in graph form: