Hurricane Watch: As Fiona Leaves A Mess In Puerto Rico The Atlantic Is Suddenly Very Active And The Season's First Gulf of Mexico Storm Is Forecast

Parts of Puerto Rico received 25 inches of rain (from then-Cat 2 Fiona) which means mud which means awfulness.

Compounding things the power went out before the storm hit—what happened to the idea of burying the main electric cables, Hurricane Maria (cat 4/5 at landfall) was an eye-opener FIVE YEARS AGO—which meant potable water was not available for half the residents (electrically powered pumps).

Fiona has further strengthened to a cat 4 with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph as it heads toward Bermuda and then Canada:

NHC 

The cone of uncertainty has the storm missing a direct hit on Bermuda as a major (cat. 3 and above) but still being a cat 1 when it makes landfall in Canada.

Elsewhere, there are three disturbances/invests coming off the Main Development Zone:

With #1 forecast to cross the Windwards into the GoM.

From the Cat. Bond/Reinsurance mavens at Artemis, September 21:

Forecast models indicate first Gulf hurricane of 2022 with US landfall risk

A number of weather forecast models are indicating that the Gulf of Mexico may come alive with hurricane activity later this month, as tropical disturbance 98L is expected to become a storm and then a hurricane on its path to the Gulf, with a US landfall seen as a likely outcome.

It’s important to note that these forecasts are looking a long way out and much can change over the next week to ten days. Hence, uncertainty over longer-range forecasts tends to be high.

But, right now, numerous forecast models are predicting a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, or close to Florida, with a high-potential for a US landfall event occurring towards the end of this month, so this is notable for insurance, reinsurance and insurance-linked securities (ILS) market interests.

It seems likely that tropical disturbance 98L will be named tropical storm Hermine within a few days at most, since Gaston has now been taken by a storm further north in the Atlantic.

As this system 98L heads towards the southern Windward islands, it is given a 70% chance of being named tropical storm Hermine within 48 hours, a 90% chance within five days....

....MUCH MORE