Saturday, September 24, 2022

"Solutions to big problems – dreams, reality, and fraud"

Following on the post immediately below regarding Salesforce's entry into the carbon credit biz we see Asia Times on a similar/parallel story, September 23:

There is no reliable timetable to success in development of revolutionary technology  

Big industrial problems attract entrepreneurs with big ideas and investors with a high risk appetite. Starting with good intentions, some end up as disastrous frauds as promised products prove to be unachievable.

How does this happen? Such situations are rare but some entrepreneurs end up misleading themselves and investors in the mistaken belief that obstacles will be overcome with just more dollars and patience. 

The infamous case of Theranos ended with the recent conviction for fraud of the entrepreneur who had falsely claimed to solve the problems of rapid and low-cost blood-specimen testing after raising hundreds of millions of dollars while falsely claiming success.

A more recent fraud case involves the hot area of carbon-free energy. The Nikola Corporation went public with the objective of manufacturing trucks propelled by fuel cells using hydrogen. This is an old concept with practical limitations. 

As of September 12, Nikola founder Trevor Milton stood accused in US Federal Court of securities fraud as the company failed to deliver any product while stating otherwise. Before the facts became known, the company briefly reached a public valuation of US$30 billion – which approached that of the Ford Motor Company. 

Both of the above ventures made initially plausible cases for achieving their products. They raised money because many investors in high-risk technology ventures are willing to  believe that all  technological risks can be overcome by a great team led by a brilliant entrepreneur. 

One reason for such high risk is that entrepreneurs looking for big ventures may promote  technologies that show promise, but have a long history of failure to reach practicality. The entrepreneur promises a solution where others have failed......

....MUCH MORE