Wednesday, September 14, 2022

"How a Pacific typhoon could help extinguish California wildfires"

From the U.S. Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Center:

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/abpwsair.jpg

For some reason the WaPo cropped out the sourcing identifiers on their version of the map. It's the JTWC, we looked at it earlier today.

From the Washington Post:

A typhoon churning through the Pacific may be half a world away, but it will set off a chain reaction that will have significant effects on weather in North America — potentially offering welcome rain to the parched and fire-ravaged West next week. 

Currently about 2,000 miles east of Japan, Typhoon Merbok is the third in a series of tropical storms and typhoons barreling across the western Pacific. It’s set to slam into the jet stream and reshape it such that next week’s weather pattern in the United States offers unsettled and rainy conditions in the West and hot, dry conditions in the East.

The typhoon will get drawn into the jet stream while tracking northward and transitioning into a powerful nontropical ocean storm. It will aim at Alaska by Friday, bringing hurricane-force winds to the Aleutians.

The storm’s interaction with the jet stream will contort it — making it more amplified or wavy — resulting in a configuration that could support rain in California and intensify a heat wave building east of the Rockies.

First, Merbok will bolt toward Alaska
As of Wednesday, Merbok was over the northwest Pacific moving due north at about 22 mph. Its maximum sustained winds were estimated to be around 75 to 80 mph, making it the equivalent of a minimal Category 1 hurricane.

It’s worth mentioning that two other storms flank Merbok to the west and are helping steer it to the north. Typhoon Muifa is slamming into Shanghai, one of the most populous cities in the world, with damaging to destructive winds, storm surge and as much as a foot of rain. Tropical Storm Nanmadol swirled between Muifa and Merbok, and is projected to intensify into a typhoon and hit Japan over the weekend.

Typhoon Muifa forecast to hit Shanghai at hurricane strength

As it moves over colder waters, Merbok will begin to morph into a large, nontropical storm. Rather than being fueled by ocean heat, it will begin to derive its energy from temperature contrasts and is forecast to rapidly gain strength.

By Friday afternoon, Merbok will be a hurricane-force nontropical low barreling into the Bering Sea, with wave heights potentially topping 40 feet and widespread 80 mph gusts.

The National Weather Service in Anchorage issued a high-wind watch for the Aleutian Islands, advertising the potential for “southwest winds 50 to 70 mph with gusts up to 90 mph possible.” The strongest winds will probably occur between Attu Island and Adak....

....MUCH MORE