"This Is The Make Or Break Level In Treasury Yields"

Although it reminds me of Gaddafi and the "Line of Death"*, this really is the level for treasury yields.

From ZeroHedge:

Yields on 10-year Treasuries climbed to as high as 1.96% on Tuesday, the highest since November 2019. Australia’s benchmark yields soared 13 basis points, while the Japan equivalent approached a level that the central bank has indicated it will defend.

Price action since the start of the year supports a narrative that convexity hedging flows have so far been absent. 

That makes sense, with the surge higher in yields built on a strong macro backdrop and a hawkish central bank pivot.

But, as Bloomberg's Ed Bolingbroke notes, this could be about to change with 10-year yields at 1.95% - a level where mortgage bond funds would be compelled to sell Treasuries to protect their portfolios against the effects of rising yields, according to strategists.

That's according to Citi, who in a closing note Friday flagged that their trading desk saw “no strong fingerprints of convexity-related paying today but they suspect a breach of 1.95% in 10’s might spur some.”....

....MUCH MORE

Our favorite proxy, the ICE Futures (TNX) 10-year yield 1.9610%   +0.0450%   

* In the 1970's Muammar Gaddafi claimed the Gulf of Sidra as territorial waters and declared the vector from Benghazi to Misratah his fearsome "Line of Death" and anyone foolish enough to cross said Line of Death would be met by the full wrath of the Libyan air force.

On Aug. 19, 1981 the U.S. Sixth Fleet was in the Gulf, the Libyans sent up their Air Force,
two F-14's from the Nimitz shot them both down and Robin Williams got a bit out of it:

...Here's a man who had the audacity to go:
"This is the line of death. You cross it, you die." {Pause}
"Okay, you cross this line, you die." {Pause}
"Okay, you cross this line, you die."
"This line, you die."
"Okay, you're knocking on my door,
  I'm not coming out. Naaaaah"

Here's the 1986 performance, Live at the Met: