Friday, November 5, 2021

Whoa!!! The Commercial Hedgers In The 10-Year Treasury Futures Have Gotten Even Longer (The 10-Year Notes Trade Higher, Faster)

It usually doesn't work this fast.

Since posting "Heads-Up: Commercials Are Getting Long 10-Year Treasury Futures Into Small Trader Shorts" yesterday, November 4 with the futures at 130.81 this is the action

131.83 last.

The CFTC's Commitment of Traders reports are for the periods ending Tuesdays and usually released the following Friday. Here's today's, Friday Nov. 5:

Commitments of Traders

Commercials increased their longs and decreased their shorts. 

Commercials are not just the most bullish on the 10-year that they've been in over a year [bonds up/yields down] but they are getting even more bullish. If they keep pushing like this there will be a massive squeeze of the speculative shorts and then a blow-off intermediate-term top. 

And in a more comprehensible format from BarChart:

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Nov 2, 2021

Commercials - Long / Short
3,052,628 (+115,461)
2,446,017 (-49,635)
 
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
496,137 (-163,867)
764,806 (-10,043)
 
Dealers / Intermediary - Long / Short
236,520 (+3,168)
199,259 (+24,480)
 
Asset / Manager - Long / Short
1,545,546 (+78,131)
1,328,035 (-50,133)
 
Leveraged Funds - Long / Short
742,069 (-118,467)
499,445 (-36,264)
 
Other Reportables - Long / Short
142,516 (-10,317)
301,970 (+3,160)