It wouldn't be a real big deal except, as you may recall from those happy days before the New York Fed suspended publication of their GDP forecast (Sept. 3, 2021), Atlanta's GDPNow was the one that always ran hot, with the two forecasts converging as we approached the report date.
This might be the stagnation part of the stagflation equation.
From the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta:
Latest estimate: 1.3 percent — October 5, 2021
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is 1.3 percent on October 5, down from 2.3 percent on October 1. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US Census Bureau, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 1.4 percent and 12.9 percent, respectively, to 1.1 percent and 10.5 percent, respectively, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -1.27 percentage points to -1.57 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Friday, October 8. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
