Monday, October 4, 2021

"Hedge funds flock to oil as energy shortages worsen"

John Kemp at Reuters who has been chronicling energy for years is now becoming a bit of a rock star.

From Reuters, Oct 4:

Rising oil prices and the spreading global shortage of coal, gas and electricity have drawn fresh buying interest from hedge funds and other money managers in oil-related derivatives contracts.

Portfolio managers purchased the equivalent of 42 million barrels in the six most important petroleum futures and options contracts in the week to Sept. 28, according to records published by regulators and exchanges.

Purchases over the last six weeks have totalled 170 million barrels, reversing more than half of the earlier sales of 268 million barrels over the previous ten weeks (tmsnrt.rs/2ZUULKJ).

For many fund managers, concerns about an energy crunch in coal, gas, electricity and to a lesser extent in oil have replaced earlier fears about a resurgence of coronavirus infections.

In the most recent week, the buying was led by the creation of new bullish long positions (+41 million barrels) rather than closure of previous bearish short ones (-1 million).

The total number of short positions has fallen to its lowest level since late 2019 and is in the 20th percentile for all weeks since the start of 2013, as fears about the coronavirus hitting oil demand have evaporated.....

....MUCH MORE

This report probably has all sorts of contrarian implications but don't go fading the action just yet.

Instead, here are a few of Mr. Kemp's recently published articles:

October 1: "COLUMN-Europe's rising energy prices will force factory closures: Kemp"

September 28: "Column-China’s widening electricity crisis caused by coal shortage: Kemp"

September 27: "COLUMN-Oil prices climb with little help from hedge funds: Kemp"