Sunday, October 3, 2021

China May Be Running Out Of Money

This is entirely speculative but as good a reason as any to start paying more attention to USD/CNY, 6.4452 last.

The Chinese authorities have pulled way back on the Belt and Road Initiative, cancelled plans to build coal-fired power plants in Africa, and shut down the crypto business. Much of this is touted as a global warming preventative or reform or whatever but it could also be explained by the fact that those projects cost money and/or power. Add in the fact that Beijing just told Tencent and Alibaba to pony up $15.5 billion each to fund goals and projects that would otherwise come out of the government purse and you have a picture of a profligate awakening after a bender and trying to apply the sticking plaster and bandaids to all these weird bleeding cuts he seems to have acquired.

Sure, China can print money, but the yuan is semi-pegged to the dollar and any strain trying to buy, say, coal or oil would become visible by way of stress on the peg.

Jus' sayin'