Friday, February 5, 2021

EIA Natural Gas Storage Report

 Probably more important than the storage report is the fact the circumpolar vortex has collapsed in such a way that Arctic cold has simultaneously descended on Asia, Europe, and North America, something we don't see all that often.

At least that's my excuse for being tardy with the report.

Sorry.

First up the estimates going in to (yesterday's) release, from FX Empire:

...According to Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI), today’s EIA report is expected to show a withdrawal close to 200 Bcf.

“A Reuters poll of 18 analysts produced estimates ranging from withdrawals of 202 Bcf to 172 Bcf, with a median decrease of 193 Bcf. A Bloomberg survey and a Wall Street Journal poll also showed estimates within that range, with both producing a median 194 Bcf decrease. NGI modeled a 197 Bcf pull,” NGI wrote.

The EIA recorded a draw of 155 Bcf during the similar week a year ago, and the five-year average withdrawal stands at 146 Bcf for the period.....

And from the Energy Information Administration

...Working gas in storage was 2,689 Bcf as of Friday, January 29, 2021, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 192 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 41 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 198 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,491 Bcf. At 2,689 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range. ...

Finally, the price action over the last week from the CME (30-minute candles):

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Iu4EWhph/