First up the big dog.
Well this doesn't look good at all:
I think that thing over there on the right might be one of them head-and-shoulders chart patterns. Additionally, in the bottom panel you'll note the commercials have been shorting the entire run-up since mid-May. Just something to be aware of. Wheat has already traded below it's neckline:
While soybeans are off in their own China trade talks world
All charts from FinViz futures (also on blogroll at right).
And from AgWeb, July 9, trade estimates of today's numbers:
USDA July WASDE Estimates: Bullish/Neutral Soy and Neutral Corn
- Reuters’s analyst poll for the July WASDE ending stocks numbers saw what we FBN believe is supportive soy, neutral corn and neutral/bearish wheat.
- The USDA’s July WASDE is Thursday, July 11 at 11:00 CST.
- Analysts are predicting that 2019/20 soybean stocks will decline by 233 MBU from the June WASDE to 812 MBU.
- As a reminder U.S. planted area for 2019 is estimated at 80 million acres, down 10% YoY and -4.6 MA from the June WASDE. This represents the lowest soybean planted acreage in the United States since 2013.
- The estimated 2019/20 USDA corn carryout is 1.69 BBU which is 22 MBU from the June WASDE. We believe that the USDA’s adding back 1.9 million acres has forced the USDA to raise both their feed and residual and export demand numbers.
- The all-wheat carryout is estimated at 1.043 BBU and -29 MBU from the June WASDE.
- The USDA present the first, by-class, wheat supply and demand balance sheets for the 2019/20 marketing year on Thursday.
- What It Means For The US Farmer: We believe that the soybean demand number can be interesting as the USDA will likely reduce some export demand following the acreage reduction.
These numbers are for reference only, we don't post our own guesses, being that we are able to find plenty of other ways to look foolish, stupid or demented in every post we post.
