IRI ENSO Forecast
2018 November Quick Look
Published: November 8, 2018
A monthly summary of the status of El Niño, La Niña, and the Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, based on the NINO3.4 index (120-170W, 5S-5N)...MUCH MORE
Use the navigation menu on the right to navigate to the different forecast sections
El Niño-level SSTs were observed in the October average, and the subsurface waters also continued to be warmer than average. However, the atmospheric variables showed mainly ENSO-neutral patterns, including the distribution of cloudiness/rainfall, sea level pressure and upper level winds. Only lower-level wind anomalies were weakly westerly in the eastern Pacific–a suggestion of El Niño. The official CPC/IRI outlook calls for an 80% chance of El Niño prevailing during winter, and a 55-60% chance of continuing into spring 2019. An El Niño watch is in effect. New forecasts of statistical and dynamical models collectively show continuing El Niño-level SSTs, most likely weak to moderate in strength, continuing through spring....
Plume of forecasts of the Nino3.4 SST anomaly from dynamical and statistical models that are run during the first half of the month. A probability forecast is generated using all of the models in Fig. 4, and is shown in Fig. 3. The average of the forecasts of the dynamical models is shown by the thick yellow line, and of the statistical models by the thick green line. The average of the four models run at the NOAA Climate Prediction center (CPC) is shown by the thick pink line. This figure is updated on the third Thursday of every month. Because forecasts from some of the models shown in Fig. 4 are not yet available when the official CPC/IRI ENSO probability forecast (Fig. 1) is made, the official forecast uses as one of its inputs the Fig. 4 for the previous mid-month, which is shown in the CPC/IRI ENSO Diagnostic Discussion.
