Friday, November 30, 2018

This is the currency rally the G-20 summit could ignite

From MarketWatch, Nov 29, 2018 4:34 p.m. ET:

Much on the line for the Australian dollar amid U.S.-China trade tensions
Traders are once again looking at the Australian dollar, often viewed as a proxy for global growth, ahead of the Group of 20 summit in Buenos Aires this weekend. A positive outcome from what’s expected to be a trade-focussed multilateral getaway could boost the currency.

Even a benign outcome of the summit, where President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are set to meet in an effort to calm trade tensions, could offer the Australian currency AUDUSD, -0.0547%  some respite, market participants said.

The Aussie dollar has fallen more than 6% in 2018, reaching its lowest level of the year at $0.7051 in early October, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Trading since has been erratic on the back of trade and commodity headlines, as well as quickly changing risk sentiment. It last fetched $0.7319.

The Aussie-U.S. pair offered a cleaner trade than say the Chinese yuan USDCNY, +0.0403% USDCNH, +0.1024%  versus the buck, because it “is more reflective of the global trade, commodities, China trade issue,” said Brad Bechtel, global head of FX at Jefferies.

“The Australian economy is cooking along okay with a bit of a dent in housing but the Aussie dollar is suffering on the back of trade issues globally and this should continue to perform based upon China headlines,” Bechtel said....