Thursday, November 29, 2018

That Time FT Alphaville's Izabella Kaminska Spotted A Potential Disaster In Natural Gas and Saved Western Civilization

On the "saved western civilization" bit I may be confusing Ms Kaminska with another Polish name, Sobieski.
And on further reflection it may not have been Western Civ that was saved but rather some fund manager's and analyst's butts and bonuses.
Here's the story.

August 18, 2014 started like any other day, with the question of how to present oneself to the world: knee breeches or sans-culottes?
Deciding, for the umteenth time the world may not be quite ready for the revival of the eighteenth century aesthetic:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/ce/Ralph_Earl_-_Elijah_Boardman_-_WGA7452.jpg

it's pantaloons and out the door, little knowing our fortunes were about to turn very jolly.
Going back a few days:
Aug. 11 
In Other News: "Kinder Morgan to abandon MLP structure it pioneered, will become 4th biggest US energy company" (KMI) 
...And more to come.
KMP, KMR and EPB


The next day, August 12:
In that morning's FT Alphaville Further Reading post the Financial Times' David Keohane commends to our attention a quick hit from Matt Levine which we linked in "Kinder Morgan Creates Money Out of Thin Air"

Later that same day Izabella Kaminska weighs in with a post we intro'd with:
Asking the Right Question About the Kinder Morgan Deal: Why Now? (KMI)
In commercial real estate you depreciate until you can't depreciate any more and then if possible do a 1031 exchange to get out of the property without paying cap gains. In estate planning you defer untaxed capital appreciation as long as possible to afford your heirs the opportunity to discover the wonder of a step up in basis. This is one of the driving issues in the sale of the Los Angeles Clippers, what are the tax implications?
It's all about the intertemporal and intrafamilial tax trades.
Izabella was considerably less pretentious, apparently channeling the upbeat spirit of Cole Porter's "Let's Do It":
On the art of creating value from nothing
Bitcoin does it. Dogecoin does it. Gold miners do it. And now Kinder Morgan does it too.
What we’re talking about is the amazing ability to create value out of nothing....
Which brings us to that wonderful late summer day:
August 18, 2014
The "Kinder Morgan Is a House of Cards" Theory and the Pros and Cons of Going Short (KMI)
Companies that engage in great amounts of financial engineering are always worth looking at as potential shorts. A lot of skullduggery can occur when the razzamatazz really gets going.

This week both Barron's which has been skeptical for a while, and FT Alphaville which has, until today, been neutral take a look at all the moving parts.

Regarding a short on KMI, I hate paying dividends on short positions.
Hate it, hate it, hate it.
But I might be tempted in this case. And the rate of ascent on the stock is definitely rolling over.

First up, FT Alphaville:
Kinder Morgan, MLPs and the sell case...
And it was off to the races.
Here's the monthly chart via FinViz:


KMI Kinder Morgan, Inc. monthly Stock Chart

The roll up was done in August 2014 at around $41, currently trading at $16.05.
There's much more to the story but the reason this all came to mind was the approaching anniversary of a pair of posts from

 December 3, 2015:
Kinder Morgan Sets Multi-Year Low As Reality of Approaching Junk Status Sinks In (KMI) UPDATED
And:
"Kinder Morgan: In Which Izabella Kaminska Declines To Take A Victory Lap And Instead Highlights Recent Analysis (KMI)"

Good one Izzy.