Was A Large Energy Fund Just Crushed?
From The Macro Tourist:
Crude oil. Ugly move lower over the past two weeks.
The market pundits will try to explain the price action. They will
offer evidence of President Trump’s tweet as the catalyst for the sell
off.
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Or they will point to the decline resulting from market participants’ belief the global economy is about to roll over.
And if they don’t use that excuse, they will trot out the breakout in the US Dollar Index.
Either way, the chart looks about as attractive as my moldy 30-year old hockey equipment.
Although I don’t deny these three factors played a role in oil’s
recent demise (especially the global slow-down narrative), I contend
that these were just excuses.
The truth of the matter is that there is a Behemoth out there that
was long crude oil against short nat gas (along with short nat gas
spreads).
Don’t believe me?
Although I acknowledge it has become mildly colder over the past
couple of weeks, do you really believe that is was enough to spike the
front nat gas future from $2.75 to $4.03?
A 46% increase in a couple of months. C’mon - that’s not weather.
Still don’t believe me that someone is offside? If you can come up
with a fundamental reason for the March / April 2019 Nat Gas spread to
spike like this, then by all means, please pass it along.
Look closely at that chart. The spread has bounced around 25 and 40
cents for the past three years. Now, in November, a full 3 months ahead
of the front month coming due, they have decided it should trade at an
82 cent premium?
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