However coming into the peak of the season we have opposing forces in play, on the one hand we have slightly El Niño conditions, leading to wind shear that rips storms apart if they form.
On the other hand, the Saharan Air Layer was especially dusty this year, inhibiting cyclone genesis in the first place, but that is changing so those long-haul Cape Verde storms have a better chance to get organized:
And the headline story from Artemis:Sahara dust blanketing Texas today but looks like quite a break over the Atlantic with little dust layer action for next week or longer.— Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com (@RyanMaue) August 12, 2018
Dust season subsides heading into late August. Tropical storms better chances of forming.
(https://t.co/XcmEbEJxko) pic.twitter.com/wZunNZsvIK
Losses from natural catastrophes and man-made disaster events are estimated to have cost the insurance and reinsurance industry $20 billion in the first-half of 2018, well down on the $35 billion average, according to global reinsurer Swiss Re.
Economic losses from major natural catastrophe and man-made loss events came out at $36 billion for the first-half of the year, which is 44% down on the prior years $64 billion and significantly below the long-term average of $125 billion.
On the insured side, last year saw $30 billion of first-half disaster losses for the insurance and reinsurance industry to deal with.
The first six months of 2018 have resulted in an estimated $18 billion of insured natural catastrophe losses, well below the average of $30 billion, and just $2 billion of man-made disaster insured losses, well down on the average of $5 billion.
...MUCH MORESwiss Re’s figures come in between other estimates already released.Catastrophe-related losses in USD billion (2008 – 2018)
Previously, Aon estimated $21 billion insured disaster losses and $45 billion economic disaster losses in H1 2018, and Munich Re estimated $17 billion insured loss and $33 billion economic.
Commenting on the disaster activity in the first-half, Swiss Re said, “A series of winter storms in Europe and in the US caused the largest losses in the first half of 2018. Globally, around 3 900 people lost their lives or went missing in disaster events during the first six months of 2018, compared to approximately 4 600 for the same period in 2017.”
It was a relatively high percentage of economic losses that were insured in this half-year, as almost 56% fell to insurance and reinsurance given most major catastrophe events occurred in areas with high insurance penetration.
Winter storm Friederike in Europe was the costliest event of the period, and Swiss Re Institute’s sigma estimates the total economic losses from this European windstorm at $2.7 billion, with roughly $2.1 billion insured....
