Thursday, August 2, 2018

Insurance: "Carr wildfire now 6th most destructive, surpasses 2017’s Thomas & Nuns Fire"

First up, Artemis with the headliner:
The Carr wildfire continues to burn and expand in Shasta County, California and the number of structures destroyed by the fire has now reached 1,378, making the Carr fire now the sixth most destructive on record in the state, with hot and dry weather making further damage likely.

The Carr wildfire has aggressively continued to burn, as the hot and dry conditions continue in California and strong winds help the flames to expand the burn area and Red Flag Warnings continue to be raised meaning further expansion of the Carr fire is possible.

Based on the number of structures destroyed, the Carr wildfire has now surpassed both the Thomas and Nuns wildfires of 2017, becoming the sixth most destructive on record in the state of California.
The Thomas wildfire alone was estimated to have caused somewhere up to $2.5 billion of insurance and reinsurance industry losses and its impacts affected aggregate contracts, including some private ILS and catastrophe bonds. The California Department of Insurance has the insurance and reinsurance industry losses in Ventura county alone as over $1.5 billion.

The Nuns fire was estimated to have caused close to one billion dollars of insurance and reinsurance losses as well.

The still burning Carr wildfire has now destroyed almost 1,000 residential properties, 16 commercial properties and the rest being farm buildings, outbuildings and the like (which can often be insured still)....MORE
Unfortunately the fire season has months to run.
What follows are some historical comparisons with a couple caveats:
1) the further back in time you go the less precise/reliable the size of the burn area. Death statistics tend to be more accurate.
2) Because of dramatic land use changes the dynamics of number of fires and extent have changed.
As people move into formerly wild areas they cause a higher percentage of fires versus lightning. On the other hand fires that formerly burned until they ran out of fuel or until the rains came are now battled aggressively.

From the U.S. Interagency Fire Center.

The last decade
Year-to-date statistics
2018 (1/1/18 - 8/1/18) Fires: 37,591 Acres: 4,810,195
2017 (1/1/17 - 8/1/17) Fires: 39,227 Acres: 5,639,919
2016 (1/1/16 - 8/1/16) Fires: 34,391 Acres: 3,529,739
2015 (1/1/15 - 8/1/15) Fires: 35,782 Acres: 5,650,307
2014 (1/1/14 - 8/1/14) Fires: 33,720 Acres: 1,651,320
2013 (1/1/13 - 8/1/13) Fires: 28,016 Acres: 2,336,185
2012 (1/1/12 - 8/1/12) Fires: 37,576 Acres: 4,088,349
2011 (1/1/11 - 8/1/11) Fires: 46,469 Acres: 6,104,883
2010 (1/1/10 - 8/1/10) Fires: 37,474 Acres: 2,008,621
2009 (1/1/09 - 8/1/09) Fires: 57,072 Acres: 3,647,431
2008 (1/1/08 - 8/1/08) Fires: 57,072 Acres: 3,612,544
10-year average Year-to-Date
2008-2017 Fires: 40,079 Acres: 3,800,416


Total Wildland Fires and Acres (1926-2017) 
The National Interagency Coordination Center at NIFC compiles annual wildland fire statistics for federal and state agencies. This information is provided through Situation Reports, which have been in use for several decades. Prior to 1983, sources of these figures are not known, or cannot be confirmed, and were not derived from the current situation reporting process. As a result the figures prior to 1983 should not be compared to later data.

                       Year                      Fires                                                       .....Acres

1941 199,702 26,405,000
1940 195,427 25,848,000
1939 212,671 30,449,000
1938 232,229 33,815,000
1937 185,209 21,981,000
1936 226,285 43,207,000
1935 140,297 30,335,000
1934 162,663 41,821,000
1933 140,722 43,890,000
1932 166,399 42,063,000
1931 187,214 51,607,000
1930 190,980 52,266,000
1929 134,895 46,230,000
1928 175,934 43,542,000
1927 158,438 38,531,000
1926 91,793 24,316,000

Historically Significant Wildland Fires

Date Name Location Acres Significance
October 1871 Peshtigo Wisconsin and Michigan 3,780,000 1,500 lives lost in Wisconsin
1871 Great Chicago Illinois undetermined 250 lives lost
17,400 structures destroyed
September 1881 Lower Michigan Michigan 2,500,000 169 lives lost
3,000 structures destroyed
September 1894 Hinckley Minnesota 160,000 418 lives lost
September 1894 Wisconsin Wisconsin Several Million Undetermined, some lives lost
February 1898 Series of South Carolina fires South Carolina 3,000,000 Unconfirmed reports indicate 14 lives lost and numerous structures and sawmills destroyed
September 1902 Yacoult Washington and Oregon 1,000,000 + 38 lives lost
April 1903 Adirondack New York 637,000 Large amount of acreage burned
August 1910 Great Idaho Idaho and Montana 3,000,000 85 lives lost
October 1918 Cloquet-Moose Lake Minnesota 1,200,000 450 lives lost
38 communities destroyed
September 1923 Giant Berkley California undetermined 624 structures destroyed and 50 city blocks were leveled