Monday, March 27, 2017

Natural Gas: EIA Weekly Supply/Demand Report

$3.1450 down 0.008.

If (big if) natty can get through the little gap at $3.20 there's not much technically to stop it up to the bottom of the big gap at $3.80, with $3.60 a minimum target.
From the Energy Information Administration:

Natural Gas Weekly Update


Prices mixed. This report week (Wednesday, March 15 to Wednesday, March 22), the Henry Hub spot price fell 2¢ from $3.00/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.98/MMBtu yesterday. Last report week, the eastern half of the country was affected by unseasonably cold temperatures and a late-winter snowstorm, pushing up prices in the Northeast and Midwest. As temperatures moderated during the current report week, prices generally fell. At the Chicago Citygate, prices decreased 4¢ from $2.93/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.89/MMBtu yesterday. 
The price at PG&E Citygate in Northern California gained 4¢ to $3.19/MMBtu yesterday. The price at SoCal Citygate rose 14¢ from $2.93/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.07/MMBtu yesterday. Temperatures in California fell over the weekend, pushing the price up 25¢ between Friday and Monday. 
Additionally, the Aliso Canyon natural gas storage field is not available for full storage service. EIA publishes information about Southern California natural gas and energy prices in the Southern California Daily Energy Report.Northeast prices fall sharply. Coming off of a late-winter snowstorm and unseasonably cold weather last week, prices in the Northeast fell sharply. At the Algonquin Citygate, which serves Boston-area consumers, prices went down $3.44 from $7.45/MMBtu last Wednesday to $4.01/MMBtu yesterday. At the Transcontinental Pipeline Zone 6 trading point for New York, prices decreased $3.71 from $6.82/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.11/MMBtu yesterday. 
Marcellus prices were largely unaffected by the moderating weather. Tennessee Zone 4 Marcellus spot prices were constant week over week at $2.77/MMBtu. Prices at Dominion South in northwest Pennsylvania fell 3¢ to $2.82/MMBtu yesterday. 
April Nymex contract up slightly. At the Nymex, the price of the April 2017 contract increased 3¢, from $2.981/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.011/MMBtu yesterday. The price of the 12-month strip, which averages the April 2017 through March 2018 futures contracts, climbed 5¢ to $3.258/MMBtu.Supply falls slightly. According to data from PointLogic, the average total supply of natural gas fell by 1% compared with the previous week. While dry natural gas production remained constant week over week, average net imports from Canada decreased by 4% from last week. 
Demand falls significantly. Total U.S. consumption of natural gas fell by 15% compared with the previous report week, according to data from PointLogic. Last week's weather featured unusually cold weather and a snowstorm in the Northeast, which pushed demand up. This week, weather moderated across most of the country, pushing demand down. Week over week, power burn declined by 9%; industrial sector consumption decreased by 5%; and residential/commercial sector consumption declined by 26%. Natural gas exports to Mexico decreased 2%. 
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. Natural gas pipeline deliveries to the Sabine Pass liquefaction terminal averaged 2.2 Bcf/d for the report week, 8% higher than the previous week. Four vessels (combined LNG-carrying capacity of 13.9 Bcf) departed Sabine Pass last week, and one vessel (LNG-carrying capacity of 3.8 Bcf) is currently loading at the terminal. 
Last week, Cheniere Energy, the operator of the Sabine Pass terminal, received authorization from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to commence liquefaction and export activities from Train 3. On March 16, Cheniere filed a request with FERC to begin commissioning of Train 4. Once the fourth train at Sabine Pass becomes operational, the total baseload nameplate capacity of the facility (including all four trains) will reach 2.6 Bcf/d, with a maximum operating capacity of 2.9 Bcf/d. The fifth train at the facility, currently under construction, is expected to begin service in mid-2019....