Wednesday, November 2, 2016

The Stress May Be Getting To Hedgie Crispin Odey--UPDATED

Update below.
Original post:

His behavior the last few years has gotten increasingly strange.
And his timing, which is critical when playing the game he plays (British gentleman swashbuckler) has been atrocious.

From Bloomberg: 
Hedge Fund Manager Odey Says U.K. Stocks Could Plummet 80%
Crispin Odey, whose main hedge fund has lost about 43 percent this year, says U.K. stocks could slump 80 percent as the economy is roiled by a recession and higher inflation following the vote to leave the European Union.

Shares will come under pressure after the FTSE 100 share index climbed 30 percent over five years even as earnings fell by 80 percent, the money manager said in a letter to investors last week seen by Bloomberg News. Odey Asset Management has short positions -- bets the stocks will fall -- in companies including Tullow Oil Plc, Intu Properties Plc, and ITV Plc.

“We are now destined to have a recession in the U.K. as well as inflation,” Odey wrote. “It will be difficult for the stock market to remain above all of this.” An official at the $8.8 billion London-based investment firm didn’t respond to a call and e-mails seeking comment.

Odey, who spoke in favor of Brexit before the vote in June, hasn’t made money at his main Odey European Inc. fund since 2014, when it gained 5.5 percent. He was down almost 13 percent last year....MORE
A couple of the recent stories at ZeroHedge, starting with the above:
...From his latest letter to investors:
These times are getting interesting. The FTSE 100 share index is now up 30% over five years, whilst earnings have fallen by 80%. On an earnings yield of 1.6%, the stock market could fall by 80% and, provided profits did not fall, would be on a 13x P/E multiple. The Bank of England is proud that they have engineered such a pleasant result but there is now increasing evidence that this is unsustainable.

On the back of the uncertainty for overseas investors in UK PLC following on from the Brexit result, the current account deficit is ballooning and the budget deficit is following. Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, has responded by flooding the money markets with more cash, QE, and in the process supporting the government 10yr bond at a current yield of 1.2%. However, as sterling falls against all its trading partners’ currencies, it is mechanically ensuring that inflation rises up through 3.5%....MORE
For Crispin Odey This Is The Endgame: Hedge Fund Billionaire Goes All In Betting On "Violent Unwind" Of QE Bubble
Billionaire Crispin Odey, Who's Had A Pretty Terrible Year, Is Betting Everything On Gold

Previously at Climateer Investing:
May 2014
Hedge Funder Crispen Odey Has Become a Parody of.....Crispen Odey
September 2012
Palladio is Turning Over in His Tomb
And a fine tomb it is.*

I saw the story yesterday under the FT Alphaville headline "Crispin Odeyous".

It wasn't until I saw the DealBreaker link to the Telegraph that I realized what a pig this guy is:
UK Hedge Fund Manager Sets Unreachably High Bar With Resplendent Private Residence For Chicken Friends
…Odey has upped the ante for poultry accommodation – he’s building a temple for his chickens for which the stone alone costs £130,000. The Palladian-style chicken house, designed by Christopher Smallwood Architects, has won planning approval from the Forest of Dean District Council...
...(For those who can appreciate the news without worrying about what it’s going to cost them, here’s a blueprint of the chicken mansion, courtesy of FT Alphaville):
Drawings for Crispin Odey’s “chicken house” depicted a structure with a three-sided stairway and two dozen columns. 
Drawings for Crispin Odey’s “chicken house” depicted a structure with a three-sided stairway
 and two dozen columns.
Crispin Odey’s chickens come home to (a luxury) roost [Telegraph via FT Alphaville]
*And the lives of all deep-pocketed animal owners thinking a bedroom and half-bath are gonna cut it....
August 2009
Crispin Odey's Apocalyptic Worldview

Five months after the start of the bull market.

UDDATE: Follow-Up: "Odey Hedge-Fund Assets Dip 60% as Clients Shun ‘Bitter Pill’"