Thursday, February 18, 2016

Bridgewater's Ray Dalio Says The Next Step Will be Helicopter Money

When the time comes, you can count on us to post re: ground effect and optimal positioning for capturing the drop. We know this stuff, having put into practice Lincoln's maxim, "I will study and learn and some day my chance will come." 

For example this is an illustration from a Dallas Federal Reserve paper, "Monetary Policy in a Zero-Interest-Rate Economy" which gives us an indication of what size drops to expect, (via iTulip as most of the official copies appear to have been wiped from the internet*):
CH-47 Chinook Helicopter

You obviously don't want to be directly under the 'copter at the time of the drop but you also have to consider prop wash in your calculations of the most favorable spot for efficient greedy-grabbing.

From ZeroHedge:

NIRP Won't Work - What Ray Dalio Thinks Central Banks Will Do Next
Just as we first warned in September 2013, so it seems the view of "helicopter money" being imminent is now becoming more mainstream as the powers that be slowly propagandize the benefits.
If dropping interest rates to zero was Unorthodox Policy #1 and QE was Unorthodox Policy #2 then it seems very possible Helicopter Money will be Unorthodox Policy #3. Whether this new level of expansionism, with all the hopes and theoretic power it is supposed to hold, can generate growth of the red-hot rather than lukewarm kind remains to be seen. However in so much as it could potentially raise nominal GDP, it may become an increasingly more attractive policy option around a global economy (especially DM) economy that faces many natural and structural growth concerns in the year ahead. Forcing the nominal economy to grow into the problems of the bubble era could be the most realistic policy choice over the remainder of the decade. 
And today, the latest in a long line of realists has now come to the same conclusion that the only thing the central planners have left is a money-drop...Authored by Bridgewater's Ray Dalio (via, 
Monetary Policy 1 was via interest rates. Monetary Policy 2 was via quantitative easing. It will be important for policy makers and us as investors to envision what Monetary Policy 3 (MP3) will look like. 
While monetary policy in the US/dollar has not fully run its course and lowering interest rates and quantitative easing can still rally markets and boost the economy a bit, the Fed’s ability to stimulate via these tools is weaker than it has ever been. The BoJ’s and ECB’s abilities are even weaker. As a result, central banks will increasingly be “pushing on a string.” Let’s take just a moment to review the mechanics of why and then go on to see what MP3 will look like.... 
...Ray Dalio: What Will Monetary Policy 3 Look Like?While negative interest rates will make cash a bit less attractive (but not much), it won’t drive investors/savers to buy the sort of assets that will finance spending. And while QE will push asset prices somewhat higher, investors/savers will still want to save, lenders will still be cautious lenders, and cautious borrowers will remain cautious, so we will still have “pushing on a string.” 
As a result, Monetary Policy 3 will have to be directed at spenders more than at investors/savers. In other words, it will provide money to spenders and incentives for them to spend it. How exactly that will work has to be determined. However, we can say that the range will extend from classic fiscal/monetary policy coordination (in which debt to finance government spending will be monetized) to sending people cash directly (i.e., helicopter money), and will likely fall somewhere between these two (i.e., sending people money tied to spending incentives)....MORE
*Here's the original URL for the paper, it now comes up as a 404:

Here's the current-scrubbed of helicopters-version:

Here's someone else who saw the original.