Monday, May 4, 2015

Chartology: Thompson Reuters Commodity Index

I don't know which way this goes, there are a lot of cross-currents:
1) Is there any more downside in iron ore?
2) Will we see another huge corn crop?
3) Is more speculative money going to flow into oil?
4) Is the grease/tallow/lard complex finally ready to break out?*
From Kimble Charting Solutions:

joefridaycommoditysupporttestmay1CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE
Commodities have had a rough go of it the past 4-years, declining almost 40%. The above charts look at the Thompson Reuters Commodity Index since the 1980’s.

The left chart is based upon “monthly closing prices,” reflecting that a neckline support test is at hand at (1).
The right chart is the same chart, based upon Hi/Lo/Closing prices. A dual test of support is in play at (1) in this chart.

Both charts reflect that  long-term tests of support are in play and support is support until broken. Often support like this is a place where at least a counter trend rally takes place....MORE
*A repost of 2012's "They're Young... They're in love... They eat Lard":
As one of the few analyst blogs that covers* the grease/tallow/lard complex we attempt to stay au courant with the latest developments.

Sometimes though it is a good idea to pull back for a look at the longer view. Here's lard, ca 1950**:


Here's the Lard Marketing Board website.

*See for example the seminal "A Look at the Tallow/Grease/Lard Complex: Tallow--It's What's for Dinner".
Also:
Some Economists Are Worth More Than Their Rendered Fat Will Bring
 Most of them should trade pari passu with the grease/tallow/lard complex.
(Prof. Gintis excepted) 
August 2009 
John Maynard Keynes: Money Manager (Couldn't Trade Lard to Save His Life)
...In a 1983 paper "J.M. Keynes' Investment Performance: A Note" the authors are dubious of his performance, without casting the aspersion that I do in my comment. They on the other hand have a great tidbit:
...Investments in commodities were more substantial. The highest annual gain was for ₤17,000 from September 1936 to August 1937 and the highest annual loss, mainly in lard, for ₤12,600 in the following twelve months...
And many more. Keywords: Keynes or tallow or...

**This version is from a truly disturbing post at Imighthavestolethat:
Retro ads of highly dubious origins